Nate Silver’s latest forecast has unveiled a seismic shift in the 2024 presidential race, with former President Donald Trump surging in the polls and President Joe Biden struggling to keep up.
In a dramatic update from Silver Bulletin, Nate Silver’s successor to the FiveThirtyEight election forecast, the numbers paint a stark picture for Biden. “We’re seeing a lot of bad polling numbers for Joe Biden over the past 24 hours — although to be more precise, what we’re really seeing is Trump’s numbers spiking while Biden’s remain depressed,” Silver noted.
The polling guru’s latest data reveals that Biden’s chances of clinching the Electoral College have plunged to a dismal 26 percent. Silver’s comprehensive model, which has a history of accuracy, adjusts for various factors such as voter registration status and the presence of third-party candidates like RFK Jr.
Despite the fancy calculations, Silver warns of the need for caution around party conventions. “The model is designed to be cautious around the party conventions: it’s shaving a little bit off Trump’s numbers and also hedging toward its pre-convention forecast. If Trump sustains these numbers, the forecast will continue to get worse for Biden.”
Today's model update. A lot of polling in since yesterday, and we're seeing an unmistakable spike for Trump, who is now up almost 4 points in our national polling average. https://t.co/vsGVG189Sa pic.twitter.com/6o8L3VKWSI
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) July 19, 2024
The timing of Trump’s polling boost aligns with the GOP Convention and a recent assassination attempt against him, which appears to have galvanized his supporters. Silver describes this juncture as “something of an inflection point.”
Trump seized the spotlight Thursday night at the Republican National Convention, accepting the GOP presidential nomination for an unprecedented third time. Meanwhile, Biden’s isolation in Delaware due to a positive COVID-19 test has only fueled whispers of dissent within Democratic ranks. The President’s absence has sparked increasing doubts about his viability in the 2024 race.
“Needless to say, stranger things have happened than a candidate who was behind in the polls winning. And in America’s polarized political climate, most elections are close and a candidate is rarely out of the running,” Silver observed.
With the clock ticking down to Election Day, Silver’s model lays out the probabilities in the Electoral College and the popular vote in every state. It even factors in potential nightmare scenarios, like a repeat of the 2000 Florida recount. “We’re not afraid of playing the percentages here — even to the decimal place,” Silver concluded.
As Biden fights to recover both physically and politically, the pressure is on for his campaign to find a path forward amid a surging Trump and growing internal skepticism.
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