The situation in Syria continues to hang by a thread, with the potential for renewed violence casting a long shadow over the fragile ceasefire achieved in Sweida last month. The U.N. envoy for Syria, Geir Pedersen, recently highlighted the precarious state of the country during a Security Council briefing. He underscored the volatility of the ceasefire, noting that, despite some relief, skirmishes still erupt and can lead to significant conflict at any moment.
Recent tensions flared in July, when deadly clashes broke out between Druze militias and Sunni Bedouin tribes, drawing in government forces who sided with the Bedouins. The tumult escalated dramatically, prompting airstrikes from Israel aimed at defending the Druze community. Even though calm was achieved with a ceasefire on July 19, Pedersen warned that the threat of violence remains an ever-present danger.
The situation on the ground is dire, with the U.N. humanitarian chief, Tom Fletcher, stating that about 16 million people are currently in need of assistance. He detailed how humanitarian convoys have faced gunfire, complicating much-needed aid distribution. Funding shortages compound the challenges faced, as only a fraction—14 percent—of the U.N.’s $3.19 billion appeal for 2025 has been fulfilled thus far.
Since the ousting of President Bashar al-Assad in December 2024, Syria has plunged into further chaos. Ahmed al-Sharaa emerged as the new leader after leading a rapid offensive that toppled Assad’s regime. His rule has brought systematic attacks and massacres against minority populations, raising international alarms about the risk of genocide. Reports document horrifying sectarian violence, including the targeted killings of Alawite and Christian civilians.
From March to late March 2025, estimates suggest the deaths of 1,300 to 1,659 Alawite civilians, as ethnic and sectarian divisions deepen within Syrian society. Hate speech flyers directed against the Alawites and the destruction of their religious shrines illustrate the growing intolerance. Meanwhile, Christians are not spared from the violence, suffering targeted attacks that culminated in deadly incidents over the Christmas period and a suicide bombing during a Divine Liturgy in Damascus.
In Sweida, a major Druze stronghold, the death toll surged dramatically, with nearly 1,000 individuals killed by July, many of whom had their bodies desecrated. Extremist groups, particularly HTS, target the Druze, perpetuating acts meant to establish sectarian dominance through humiliation and violence. Despite nominal government control, the Druze communities have maintained a level of autonomy through local militias, which further complicates the political landscape.
Pedersen emphasized the need for reforms, including a new social contract and fair elections. He cautioned that a climate of fear and distrust could jeopardize any potential political progress. It is clear that al-Sharaa, despite his rise to power amid promises of transformation, has not changed the trajectory of violence and persecution against ethnic minorities.
Al-Sharaa’s past is steeped in terrorism; he started as a foreign fighter in Iraq before climbing the ranks of al-Qaeda. His involvement with extremist organizations reflects a broader pattern of violence that has plagued Syria for over a decade. Initially affiliated with ISIS, his efforts in establishing a foothold in Syria have only perpetuated the suffering of innocent civilians.
Recent warnings from the Lemkin Institute for Genocide Prevention indicate a potential escalation towards genocide. Minorities express fear over living in a country dominated by Islamist ideologies. The ongoing violence raises uncomfortable questions about the future of these communities within Syria’s evolving landscape. With minorities increasingly vulnerable to war crimes, serious concerns about the inclusivity of Syria’s transitional process loom large.
The escalating violence against ethnic and sectarian minorities in Syria demonstrates that the implications of the country’s upheaval extend beyond political transitions. The hope for a unified nation remains challenged by deep-seated divisions. The reality on the ground is that without significant intervention and a commitment to protecting all communities, the cycle of violence may only grow, forever shattering any chance of lasting peace.
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