For over twenty years, the relationship between Washington and New Delhi was considered a diplomatic triumph. However, this alliance is now grappling with its most significant challenges in recent memory, as India appears to be exploring alternative partnerships. “The trust is gone,” said Evan Feigenbaum, a South Asia expert, highlighting a pivotal shift in the U.S.-India dynamic.
In recent weeks, tensions escalated following President Trump’s implementation of substantial tariffs on Indian imports. In response, India has sought to strengthen ties with its eastern neighbors, evidenced by recent visits from Indian leaders to Moscow and discussions with Chinese officials. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is even poised for his first visit to China in over seven years, a move that underscores India’s pivot towards nations often viewed as rivals to the United States.
Trump’s tariffs, initially set at 25%, are expected to double soon, a strategy aimed at penalizing India for its continued purchases of Russian oil. Public sentiment in India has turned sour towards what many perceive as U.S. meddling in their foreign policy decisions. Feigenbaum elaborated, saying, “They’re signaling very clearly that they view that as interference in India’s foreign policy, and they are not going to put up with it.” This growing defiance is an emerging theme within Indian politics, as Modi seeks to affirm his stance on national sovereignty.
Despite initial reluctance, Indian refiners have resumed purchasing Russian oil, largely drawn in by attractive discounts. Presently, Russian crude constitutes 35% of India’s total imports—a drastic increase from a mere 0.2% prior to the Ukraine conflict. Russian officials have publicly stated their commitment to continue exporting oil and coal to India, further cementing ties between the two nations.
Experts observe that while some Indian diplomatic moves may appear as mere theatrics against the backdrop of U.S. pressure, others indicate a long-term shift in policy. Kugelman notes that India is strategically reducing reliance on Russian military equipment in favor of Western alternatives. “This is essentially validation of a view in India that the U.S. can’t be trusted, whereas Russia can,” he stated, illustrating a growing sentiment that could reshape future alliances.
The stark contrast between the current state of affairs and the U.S.-India relationship from two decades ago is notable. The landmark civil nuclear deal of 2008, which offered India access to U.S. technology, is now a distant memory. Back then, both nations adeptly navigated their occasional disagreements without letting them undermine the overall partnership. Kugelman emphasizes that while countering China remains a core objective, growing trade tensions threaten the framework that has historically held this partnership together.
As negotiations regarding defense cooperation continue, the crucial element of trust appears weakened. Feigenbaum reflects on the shift in priorities: “India is now working with the Chinese to signal Washington rather than the other way around.” The underlying message is unmistakable: India is set to define its own foreign policy path, even if it means drawing nearer to rivals of the United States.
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