A government shutdown looms large, set to strike at 12:01 a.m. ET on Wednesday. The Senate is preparing for a pivotal vote aimed at breaking a filibuster regarding a House-passed interim spending bill. It’s a precarious situation, requiring at least 60 votes, meaning Democratic support is essential. As it stands, the House is out of session this week, and the impending Jewish holiday of Yom Kippur beginning Wednesday evening means the government will be inoperative for days.
The last shutdown occurred from late 2018 into early 2019, lasting a record 35 days. Essential services such as military, national security, and intelligence operations will continue during a shutdown. Lawmakers must still receive their paychecks, thanks to the 27th Amendment. Certain areas will experience disruptions; national parks and museums typically close, while the Postal Service remains operational. Passport processing generally halts, and although air traffic controllers keep working, their pay is deferred until the situation resolves.
Social Security and health benefits will still be disbursed. However, there is a risk that federal employees handling these payments might not show up for work if they remain unpaid for too long. Historically, shutdowns reach a tipping point that compels lawmakers to negotiate and end the stalemate. During the 2013 government shutdown, U.S. Capitol Police were involved in a chaotic chase that led to gunfire near the Capitol complex—an incident that rallied lawmakers to reach an agreement.
Similar urgency arose in 2019 when air traffic controllers, working without pay, affected operations at major airports including LaGuardia, Newark, Atlanta, and Philadelphia. The prospect of an aviation disaster forced lawmakers to act decisively. The question of who benefits politically from shutdowns remains complex and is often debated. The 1995-1996 standoff between former President Bill Clinton and then-Speaker Newt Gingrich is frequently cited, with many believing Clinton emerged victorious as he went on to win reelection in 1996.
While Gingrich faced backlash, he did secure substantial spending reforms, leading to a federal surplus. In 2013, Senator Ted Cruz instigated a shutdown over efforts to dismantle Obamacare, an initiative that ultimately failed to achieve its central goal. Yet Cruz triumphed in the subsequent election cycle, illustrating how shutdowns can shape political landscapes in unexpected ways.
The shutdown that started in 2018 preceded the swearing in of newly elected lawmakers. This timing muddied the waters regarding its political fallout, especially as the COVID-19 pandemic and other significant issues overshadowed the shutdown by 2020. The political calculus regarding shutdowns is rarely straightforward; various factors can drastically alter public sentiment and party fortunes in the long run.
As the deadline approaches, the stakes are high. The decisions made in the coming days will not only affect government operations but may also have lasting implications for lawmakers on both sides of the aisle as they navigate the murky waters of public opinion and partisan dynamics. The very essence of compromise hangs in the balance, and history reminds us that both parties must often come to the table, finding a way to move past their differences to restore government function.
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