Republican Sen. Joni Ernst of Iowa has made headlines after announcing she will not seek re-election in the upcoming midterms. Her decision follows a reflective period spent contemplating her priorities. In a social media video, Ernst expressed, “Having been raised in a family who has given me so much love and support, now as our family ages and grows, it’s my time for me to get back to them.” At 55, she is stepping away after serving in the Senate since 2014.
This announcement comes as a significant shift in Iowa’s political landscape. The decision sets the stage for an open Senate seat, potentially drawing interest from various candidates. GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson has already indicated plans to run, setting her sights on succeeding Ernst. Hinson, a former TV news anchor, currently represents Iowa’s 2nd Congressional District, which spans the northeastern region of the state. Her ambition to step into the Senate marks her as a prominent figure for the Republican Party in Iowa.
Ernst’s departure signals more than just a personal decision. Iowa was once a fierce battleground state. It supported former President Barack Obama in both 2008 and 2012. However, recent elections have tilted towards the Republican side, with President Donald Trump winning by margins of 8 points in 2020 and 13 points in the last election. Currently, Republicans dominate Iowa’s political scene, controlling both Senate seats and all congressional districts, aside from the state auditor position held by a Democrat.
The implications of Ernst’s retirement may be felt as Democrats are trying to capitalize on recent gains. Energized by victories in two special elections, four Democratic candidates have already declared intentions to run for the Senate. Prominent names such as state Rep. Josh Turek, who is also a Paralympian, and state Sen. Zach Wahls are part of a growing field aimed at challenging the Republican stronghold.
Ernst first caught national attention with her memorable “make ’em squeal” campaign ads during her initial Senate bid, succeeding retiring Democratic Sen. Tom Harkin. Her military background as a retired Army Reserve and Iowa National Guard officer has often framed her legislative priorities, especially concerning military and defense issues. As the first female combat veteran in the Senate, Ernst has been a voice on critical topics like combating sexual assault in the military, stemming from her personal experiences.
Since Trump’s election in 2016, Ernst has navigated the delicate dynamics of balancing support for the former president while adhering to a more traditional Republican agenda. Recent remarks during a town hall stirred controversy, as she told constituents, “We are all going to die,” referencing concerns over Medicaid cuts. Such statements illustrate the challenges she faced in connecting with her electorate amid policy debates.
The road ahead is not easy for the Republican Party, facing inherent risks during midterm elections. With 2024 shaping up to be a pivotal year for Senate control, the GOP currently holds a slight majority of 53-47. The upcoming elections will test not only their ability to defend existing seats but also to expand their influence in battleground states.
Georgia stands out as a critical state, where Republicans view first-term Sen. Jon Ossoff as vulnerable. More attention will turn to Michigan and New Hampshire, where key Democratic incumbents have signaled a willingness to step aside. Both scenarios could provide Republicans chances to make gains in historically competitive regions.
Ernst’s decision adds a layer of complexity to the 2026 election landscape, especially as Republicans aim to regain ground in traditional Democrat strongholds. The senator’s retirement could open doors for new candidates who may change the direction of the state’s representation. With Democrats actively recruiting formidable opponents and energized by recent victories, both parties are gearing up for a fierce battle ahead.
"*" indicates required fields
