A Senate Republican is seeking clarity on the potential costs of a partial government shutdown as negotiations between GOP and Democratic leaders stall. Sen. Joni Ernst from Iowa has formally requested the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) provide a comprehensive analysis of how a shutdown could impact federal payments and the broader economy.
Last week, the House GOP passed a short-term funding measure known as a continuing resolution, but Senate Democrats blocked it. The clock is ticking down to the Sept. 30 deadline for government funding, heightening the stakes of the ongoing standoff.
In her letter to CBO Director Phillip Swagel, Ernst, also the chair of the Senate Department of Government Efficiency Caucus, placed responsibility for a potential shutdown squarely on Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer. “The same politicians who whined and complained about the Department of Government Efficiency laying off unnecessary bureaucrats just a few months ago are now forcing a government-wide shutdown themselves to expose who is and isn’t an essential employee,” she remarked.
Ernst is particularly interested in understanding the effects of a shutdown on various sectors, including how it would impact the pay for furloughed non-essential employees, military members, and even congressional staff. The potential ripple effects on the private sector are also a concern for her. For instance, she is asking the CBO to analyze how businesses might suffer from halted government services, such as loans and permits, and whether they would be able to recover financially once services resume. “Some of those private-sector entities will never recoup that lost income,” a previous CBO report warned, emphasizing the severe repercussions from past shutdowns.
The CBO had previously conducted a cost analysis of the last government shutdown in 2019, which lasted 35 days during a clash over border wall funding between Schumer and former President Donald Trump. That incident delayed an estimated $18 billion in federal spending and contributed to an $8 billion drop in the first quarter gross domestic product. A significant portion of that financial burden fell on federal workers who waited for delayed payments and on private businesses grappling with the fallout.
As the funding deadline looms, uncertainty still reigns over whether Senate Republicans, led by John Thune, and Democrats can negotiate an agreement. Tensions escalated further when Trump canceled a scheduled meeting with Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries. In response, Democrats pointed fingers at Trump for the stalled discussions, asserting that the high demands from their party complicate negotiations for a continuation of government funding.
Schumer criticized Trump, stating, “Once again, Donald Trump has shown the American people he is not up to the job. It’s a very simple job: sit down and negotiate with the Democratic leaders and come to an agreement, but he just ain’t up to it.” His comments highlight the intense pressure on leadership from both parties to reach a resolution before the deadline takes effect.
Amid this backdrop, the differences between the parties are stark. Democrats are pushing for significant concessions, such as permanent extensions of Affordable Care Act subsidies, which Republicans view as excessive demands that make compromise more elusive. Meanwhile, the urgency for all sides to act grows as the possibility of a government shutdown inches closer.
Ernst’s proactive request for a detailed economic analysis from the CBO reflects a desire to quantify the stakes involved. In an environment laden with political maneuvering, her emphasis on practical impacts — from back pay for federal employees to operational disruptions within the private sector — sheds light on the broader consequences a shutdown would bring. The path forward remains uncertain, underscoring the delicate balance lawmakers must strike in these critical negotiations.
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