Vice President J.D. Vance is marking his territory in key battleground states, according to recent polling data. Vance’s numbers are causing a stir within the political landscape, indicating he could outperform Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom of California in a potential 2028 face-off. A poll conducted by Plymouth Union Public Research highlights crucial findings that bode well for Vance as he navigates the pre-election landscape.
The survey encompassed Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—states that are pivotal in determining the outcome of presidential elections. The results show Vance leading Newsom by a slim margin of 51 percent to 49 percent among likely voters. Notably, Vance shows strength in five out of the seven critical states tested, suggesting he appeals to a diverse electorate. In fact, Vance has garnered support from 9 percent of Democrats, while Newsom managed to attract only 7 percent of Republicans.
Vance’s visibility may serve him well moving forward, as 27 percent of voters view him very favorably, surpassing Newsom’s 21 percent. However, Vance also faces challenges: 45 percent of voters have an unfavorable view of him, but this still leaves him with a slight net positive rating. In contrast, Newsom’s profile is concerning—with 25 percent of respondents indicating they have never heard of him, and another 24 percent expressing negative sentiments.
The poll does not end with Newsom. Other prominent Democrats show a mixed bag of support. Former Vice President Kamala Harris carries a favorability rating of 49 percent, but 46 percent view her negatively. Minnesota Governor Tim Walz and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg appear similarly in a precarious position—Walz at 43 percent positive and Buttigieg at 39 percent, with significant portions of voters indicating unfamiliarity with both figures. Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro scored a 39 percent positive rating, but 36 percent of respondents were unfamiliar with him as well.
Economic policy preferences among voters further reveal insights into what might shape the upcoming election. The poll showed that 66 percent of respondents back the “America First” economic policies championed by Trump, including support from 41 percent of Democrats and 36 percent of Harris supporters. A strong 80 percent approve of requiring foreign companies to manufacture in the United States, emphasizing a preference for American labor and resources. Additionally, nearly three-quarters of voters support more stringent regulations on Chinese firms operating in the country, reflecting a growing desire for domestic economic resilience.
This survey, conducted with 1,000 likely voters between August 8-10, also adds weight to Vance’s growing momentum, as he appears to consistently outperform potential rivals. An earlier poll from Emerson College reiterated his lead over Newsom, Buttigieg, and even rising contender Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
Vance’s standing is further bolstered by a strong performance in the CPAC straw poll, positioning him as a likely successor to the Trump legacy. Trump himself has commented on Vance’s potential, recognizing him as a formidable candidate for the future: “Most likely, in all fairness. He’s the vice president,” Trump stated, affirming Vance’s capability to carry the torch.
As energizing as these numbers are for Vance, it is essential to acknowledge the considerable time left before the next presidential election. There are more than three years ahead of Trump’s leadership, and with each day, a new competitor could emerge from the woodwork. Incumbent advantages and shifting political dynamics could reshape the landscape as candidates jostle for position. Yet, for the moment, Vance’s promising poll results set the stage for a potentially competitive and dynamic race.
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