A recent straw poll conducted by The Western Journal reveals interesting dynamics in the early stages of the 2028 Republican primary. The poll, which took place from October 13 to 19, garnered responses from nearly 15,000 readers and shows Vice President J.D. Vance still leading the pack, although his lead has diminished over the past two weeks.
This week, Vance received 50.1 percent of the votes, a noticeable dip from 53.5 percent just a week prior. Earlier this month, Vance even peaked at a commanding 62.1 percent. While his popularity among conservatives is undeniable, the recent declines suggest a shifting landscape as other contenders begin to gain traction.
Before delving further, it’s important to note the support for Vance’s close running mate, President Donald Trump. Despite being term-limited, Trump garnered 13.4 percent of the responses, a slight increase from last week’s 13.1 percent. This indicates that Trump’s influence within the party remains robust, even as he steps back from seeking another term. The combined support for Vance and Trump, amounting to around 63.5 percent, underscores the enduring appeal of the previous Trump-Vance administration among the poll’s participants. Vance’s consistent dominance points to his established rapport with conservative voters who likely backed the duo in the past.
Trailing both men in the poll, Representatives Thomas Massie and Marco Rubio tied for third place, each receiving 10.4 percent. Massie’s support dipped slightly from the previous week’s 10.1 percent, indicating a modest loss in momentum. Conversely, Rubio managed a slight uptick from 7.9 percent, suggesting he may be making a case for his candidacy among conservative voters.
On the lower end of the spectrum, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis saw his numbers decrease to 4.8 percent from 5.2 percent. This drop reflects a trend that may warrant closer examination, especially considering the significant attention DeSantis has received in various national discussions. The inclusion of a 10.9 percent “Other” category indicates some portion of respondents is still exploring options outside the leading candidates, perhaps signaling a growing interest in new faces or alternative views within the party.
Even with the decline, Vance’s substantial lead of over 36 percentage points above Trump highlights his strong position within the Republican base. The ongoing support for the incumbents—Vance, Trump, and the Secretary of State—reflects the echoes of a successful administration and the loyalty it fostered among its supporters. The results of this non-scientific survey continue to offer insights into the prevailing attitudes within the Republican Party as it seeks its candidate for the increasingly anticipated 2028 primary.
As the straw poll will continue on a weekly basis, it will be interesting to observe how these dynamics evolve as the primary approaches. The results hint at a tightly wound race behind Vance, suggesting that while he remains a frontrunner, he will face pressure from other candidates seeking to capitalize on shifting voter sentiments.
The Western Journal’s tracking of reader attitudes serves as a crucial barometer for understanding where the party is headed, emphasizing the interplay of legacy and emerging voices. As the candidates position themselves for support, the underlying currents of party loyalty and voter expectations will be critical in shaping the narrative leading into 2028.
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