Myanmar’s military junta has declared elections for December 28, 2025, but the announcement lacks credibility. Since the coup in 2021, the regime has systematically dismantled democracy. Nearly all pro-democracy parties have been banned, creating a landscape where the election’s outcome is seen as a foregone conclusion.
As the junta prepares for the vote, it has ramped up military offensives, seeking to regain lost territory. This strategy aims not just at military control but also at projecting an illusion of stability. The Union Election Commission (UEC), far from being an independent body, functions as an arm of military rule. The junta’s plan includes a dubious census that raises serious concerns.
Conducted officially to create a voter list, the census instead appears to serve as a tool of surveillance. It includes 68 questions that extend beyond basic voter registration needs, probing into areas such as family connections abroad and home languages. Rights groups have condemned the process as an intimidation tactic against citizens, particularly targeting supporters of the Civil Disobedience Movement and families of underground resistance fighters.
Digital rights activists warn that the junta is collecting sensitive biometric data like fingerprints and iris scans, which raises alarms about privacy and governmental overreach. Such measures extend into the realm of ethnic scrutiny, with questions seemingly designed to promote Burman identity at the expense of ethnic minorities.
To manage a country still largely under resistance, the junta plans to hold elections in phases, rather than on a single day. This decision reflects the pervasive climate of martial law and a state of emergency that covers over 60 townships, areas where the military faces heavy opposition.
Despite claims of 55 registered political parties, major opposition factions, including the National League for Democracy (NLD), have been sidelined. This exclusion underscores the undemocratic nature of the election process, particularly as the new Political Party Registration Law benefits the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP). The military’s retention of 25 percent of parliamentary seats further ensures that pro-democracy groups have little chance of competing effectively.
Ethnic minorities, comprising a significant portion of the population, are expected to be marginalized in this sham election. China’s support for these elections adds another layer of complexity. Beijing appears to see the junta’s staged vote as a means to stabilize Burma and maintain its influence. China has actively engaged with political factions aligned with the junta, visiting surveillance centers and showcasing its state-run enterprises to Myanmar’s leaders.
India and Thailand have reportedly taken a cautious stance, recognizing the potential for a flawed electoral process to quell chaos, even if it reaffirms military control. However, pro-democracy groups view this election as a means to entrench illegitimate rule. The National Unity Government (NUG) has vocally condemned both the election and the census, stating, “The junta has the intention to carry out a sham election,” and expressing alarm over the intimidation tactics being employed.
The consensus among various observers is that the upcoming elections will lack fundamental democratic qualities. It is seen as an attempt by the junta to project legitimacy while continuing to exercise authoritarian power. With China’s interest aligned in maintaining the junta, evidence suggests technical support will be provided to facilitate the flawed processes expected in the election.
Moreover, the junta has issued stern warnings against any civil protests arising from election results. Citizens can expect severe penalties for dissent, including lengthy prison sentences. This climate of fear surrounds the upcoming vote, highlighting the lengths the junta will go to maintain control.
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