The early in-person voting figures for New Jersey’s 2025 gubernatorial election, which commenced on October 25, reveal a fiercely contested race. Democratic nominee Mikie Sherrill leads Republican challenger Jack Ciattarelli by a modest 2.8 percentage points. These numbers suggest an exciting face-off that could culminate in one of the tightest races the state has seen in years.
On the first day of early voting, the turnout figures were as follows: 38,039 Democrats (42.1%), 35,512 Republicans (39.3%), and 16,895 unaffiliated voters (18.7%). Compared to previous elections, this narrow lead for Democrats indicates a shift toward more competitive voter engagement among Republicans. In 2024, the Democratic lead on day one was just 1.2 points. This data implies that Republican enthusiasm has surged as they mobilize ahead of Election Day on November 4.
Republican strategists view this lead as a potential sign of strength. One tweet circulating among supporters urged: “NOT ENOUGH for Jack to win yet! Keep pushing and turn out every low propensity voter for Jack Ciattarelli through November 4th!” This emphasizes that while the gap is closing, appealing to independent voters—who represent nearly 19% of the early turnout—is crucial for victory.
Ciattarelli, a former state assemblyman and the GOP’s 2021 gubernatorial nominee, aims to reclaim the governor’s mansion, a position not held by Republicans since Chris Christie’s re-election in 2013. On the other side, Sherrill emerged victorious from a competitive primary to capture the Democratic nomination with just over 34% of the vote. Ciattarelli dominated his primary with more than two-thirds support from Republican voters.
Despite the Democratic edge in initial turnout, Republican momentum is apparent. Historically, Democrats held much larger leads in early voting than the current figures reflect. This shift could signal increased engagement on the Republican front, suggesting a tightening of the race.
Throughout the early voting period, around 4.9 million registered voters in New Jersey have the option to vote by mail or in person. Even before early voting started, over 400,000 mail-in ballots had already been submitted. While mail-in voting still exhibits a Democratic advantage, the enthusiasm gap has narrowed, indicating that both parties are effectively mobilizing their supporters.
Recent polling underscores the competitive nature of the race. A late-September Rutgers-Eagleton poll had Sherrill ahead of Ciattarelli by 6 points among likely voters, but it also indicated that the Republican candidate led by 8 points among independents. This suggests that the path to victory for both candidates may depend significantly on the independent vote.
Geographical voting patterns reveal further insights. Traditionally Democratic urban counties such as Essex and Hudson remain strongholds for the party. In contrast, Republican voter turnout has significantly increased in exurban areas like Ocean, Cape May, and Sussex. In Ocean County alone, over 10% of all GOP early in-person ballots were cast on the first day. This regional divide could play a substantial role in determining the election’s outcome.
Ciattarelli’s campaign has focused on economic issues and criticisms of former Governor Phil Murphy’s pandemic policies. The strategy includes targeting swing areas and engaging typically lower-turnout voters in off-year elections. A campaign aide remarked, “We’re reaching out every day to voters who only show up in presidential years,” indicating a concerted effort to energize this segment of the electorate.
The contrast between mail-in and early in-person voting trends reveals an intriguing pattern. By mid-October, Democrats had returned over 62% of the total mail-in ballots while Republicans trailed at just under 22%. However, Republicans are showing a higher return rate of requested ballots. Forty-eight point five percent of GOP ballots were returned compared to 48.0% for Democrats. This slight edge suggests a higher motivation among Republican voters, which could counterbalance the numerical Democratic advantage in total registrations.
The stakes are significant for the 2025 election. The eventual winner will replace outgoing Governor Phil Murphy, who cannot run for a third term. Historical trends show that New Jersey has not elected a governor from the same party for three consecutive terms since 1965. Republicans are banking on this trend, alongside recent shifts toward the GOP in congressional and local races, to advocate for a possible upset.
The federal Department of Justice plans to monitor polling sites, responding to concerns from Republican leaders about previous procedural failures. While Democrats criticize this as a political maneuver, the added scrutiny introduces another layer of complexity to the already contentious election landscape.
Despite the obstacles, Ciattarelli’s path to victory is precarious yet achievable. With less than 10 days until the election, both campaigns are ramping up their outreach efforts. Independent and swing voters, particularly moderate retirees and suburban women, are likely to prove pivotal in determining the election’s outcome. This mirrors the dynamics observed in the 2021 gubernatorial election, where Ciattarelli lost to Murphy by a narrow margin.
Moving forward, political analysts will focus closely on independent voter participation, Republican early voting trends, and shifts in mail-in ballot returns. If Republican momentum continues and Ciattarelli can convincingly secure the independent vote, victory might still be within reach.
For now, the numbers offer a glimpse of a tightening race, not a definitive outcome. As highlighted in that cautionary tweet: “NOT ENOUGH for Jack to win yet!” The election remains open, with possibilities for both candidates yet to unfold.
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