A recent Fox News poll reveals that the New Jersey gubernatorial race is tightening as Democrat Mikie Sherrill holds a slim lead over Republican Jack Ciattarelli. Currently, Sherrill is ahead by 5 points (50-45%) among likely voters, a decrease from her previous 8-point advantage. This shift suggests increased competitiveness leading into the upcoming election.
Among registered voters, Sherrill commands a 4-point lead (48-44%), down from 7 points. This close race indicates that both candidates are vying for every possible vote as Election Day approaches.
Sherrill’s support largely stems from key demographics, including Black voters, younger residents, women under 45, college-educated individuals, and Hispanic voters. In contrast, Ciattarelli finds his strongest backing among MAGA supporters, men without college degrees, White men, and those aged 55-64. This division reflects broader regional and demographic trends often seen in state politics.
The enthusiasm among Ciattarelli’s supporters is noteworthy. A significant 69% express strong excitement about voting this year, compared to 64% supporting Sherrill. Yet, the presence of undecided voters—1 in 10 from each camp—highlights the potential for changes before the polls close.
Recent campaign narratives have influenced voter perceptions. Sherrill has experienced a decline in her ratings for honesty and trustworthiness—moving from a 16-point advantage to a slimmer 5-point margin (52% to 47%). Similarly, her favorable ratings have dipped from a 10-point lead to only 2 points. On the other hand, Ciattarelli has also faced negative shifts, with his honesty ratings falling from positive territory to a deficit of 2 points.
Daron Shaw, a Republican pollster involved in conducting the Fox News Poll, notes the impact of campaign strategies. “The allegations about Sherrill’s record at the Naval Academy damaged her, but the manner in which those records were obtained has left Ciattarelli open to criticism as well.” This highlights the intricate dance of campaign tactics where both sides face scrutiny.
Voter perceptions of leadership traits show a mixed landscape. Both candidates receive equal acknowledgment as “strong leaders,” each drawing 54% support on that front. However, Sherrill holds a slight edge in empathy, with 55% feeling she “cares about people like me,” compared to 49% for Ciattarelli.
Addressing issues that matter most to voters, a significant 34% identify taxes as a primary concern, while 19% point to the rising cost of living. Sherrill enjoys a slight trust advantage on taxes and much larger margins on energy costs and healthcare. Ciattarelli, however, receives stronger support for his approach to crime, leading by 7 points in that area.
The political landscape in New Jersey is notably influenced by party allegiance. Support for Ciattarelli stands at 92% among Republicans, while 89% of Democrats support Sherrill. The independence of the smaller subgroup of voters adds an unpredictable dynamic to the race, especially with more New Jerseyans identifying as Democrats.
Sherrill is stepping into the spotlight to fill the term-limited seat of Democratic Governor Phil Murphy. Murphy leaves behind mixed reviews from voters, with 47% viewing him positively and 49% negatively. Overall dissatisfaction with the state’s direction remains high, although a slight improvement has emerged over the last term.
Looking at broader election patterns, recent presidential elections have shown President Trump receiving increasing support in New Jersey, climbing from 41% in 2016 and 2020 to 46% in 2024. However, despite the gains, he still lost to Kamala Harris. Currently, 45% of New Jersey voters hold a favorable view of Trump, a notable improvement from earlier years.
This Fox News poll, conducted from October 10 to 14, 2025, involved a diverse group of 1,002 registered voters. With a margin of sampling error at ±3 percentage points, the data reflects a mixture of traditional polling methods and modern outreach. As voters remain engaged and opinions shift, the upcoming election promises to be a closely watched and hotly contested affair.
"*" indicates required fields
