New York City’s early voting has started with surprising energy, providing encouragement for former Governor Andrew Cuomo as he seeks to recover from a recent primary defeat. The early voting period commenced on Saturday, and within just two days, 164,190 ballots were cast. This figure is astonishing, being five times the turnout of the first weekend of early voting in 2021, which saw the election of Mayor Eric Adams.
The demographic breakdown shows a notable shift. Voters aged 55 and older represented half of the total turnout, a significant change from the primary where younger voters were more prominent. Specifically, the 25 to 34 age group constituted only 16 percent of the early votes, a decline from 25 percent in previous voting. This uptick among older voters could play a crucial role in shaping the election’s outcome.
Recent polling data amplifies this potential impact. A Quinnipiac University poll revealed Cuomo is tied with the far-left candidate Zohran Mamdani among voters aged 50 to 54 and has a four-point lead among those over 65. Laura Tamman, a political scientist at Pace University, noted the importance of young voters who energized Mamdani’s campaign in the primary. “Are the young people who were so excited going to come back? We’ll have to see…” she cautioned.
The Cuomo campaign is keen to harness the momentum from these early numbers. “Most voters don’t want New York City to be a socialist experiment,” said Rich Azzopardi, a spokesperson for Cuomo. He emphasized the significance of the election, framing it as “the most important election of our lifetime,” and portrayed the turnout as a sign that New Yorkers recognize the stakes.
Stephen Graves, president of Gotham Polling, affirmed that higher voter turnout generally plays to Cuomo’s advantage. He argued that increased participation tends to attract a more moderate, non-partisan demographic, which historically favors Cuomo. While acknowledging Mamdani’s strong appeal among younger voters, Graves pointed out that his support base is not as extensive. “The reality is Mamdani has very deep support in the young, but it’s not very broad, whereas Cuomo has deep support in the 50-plus…” he explained. Typically, this older demographic tends to show up at the polls more reliably.
Despite the focus on the leading candidates, Republican Curtis Sliwa remains a noteworthy figure in this race. Although he consistently trails both Mamdani and Cuomo in polls, his influence could be significant. Graves highlighted a crucial unknown factor: the behavior of Sliwa’s supporters. “What we don’t know is how many of Curtis’ voters decide they can’t win and choose to vote for Cuomo, who they don’t like, just to oppose Mamdani…” he noted. This suggests a complex dynamic where some voters might select their candidate not out of support, but primarily as a strategic move against another candidate.
Overall, the early voting period has injected a fresh sense of optimism into Cuomo’s camp. The dramatic increase in turnout, coupled with its favorable demographic shifts, suggests that the next few weeks leading up to the election will be pivotal for the candidates involved. Whether Cuomo can convert this early momentum into tangible support will largely depend on how well he can appeal to both loyalists and those simply looking for a change from perceived extremism in the opposition.
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