As the holiday season nears, Americans grapple with uncertainty regarding the economy. Despite signs that inflation is beginning to ease, a mix of caution permeates consumers’ spending habits. Thanksgiving often serves as a litmus test for President Donald Trump’s economic policies, as families gather to reflect on their financial situations. This year, that reflection is tinged with apprehension.
Joanne Hsu, the director and chief economist of the University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers, emphasizes a worrying trend: “Our interviews reveal that consumers believe that now is a very unfavorable time for major purchases for multiple reasons, including high prices and high borrowing costs.” Her insight illustrates the duality of the current landscape: households are cautious about lavish spending, yet a willingness to purchase smaller items persists if value is found. The ongoing battle to stretch dollars speaks to Americans’ lack of confidence, a sentiment that intensifies as the holidays approach.
This skepticism presents a significant political challenge for Trump. He returned to the White House fueled by promises of affordability, yet many voters now question whether these pledges have materialized. A recent Fox News national survey indicates a troubling shift in public sentiment, with 76% of voters rating the economy negatively. This figure marks a rise from 67% in July and 70% when Biden left office. Blame is directed squarely at Trump; nearly twice as many voters cite him as responsible for current economic woes compared to Biden. Further compounding these challenges, Trump’s approval ratings regarding economic management have slumped to an all-time low.
In stark contrast, Democratic candidates embraced affordability themes in various elections, achieving success. In states like Virginia, New York, and New Jersey, where families feel the crunch of rising housing costs and utility bills, Democrats highlighted Trump’s policies as key contributors to the affordability crisis. They pledged to lower energy costs and bolster middle-class wages, reflecting a broader understanding that economic messaging is crucial in today’s climate. The power of these promises resonates deeply with voters who feel financially strained.
Scott Lincicome, vice president of general economics at Cato’s Herbert A. Stiefel Center for Trade Policy Studies, underscores a critical misstep from earlier this year. “I think they made a real strategic blunder back in January and February,” he says. His observation echoes the sentiment that Trump’s initial commitments—specifically, promises to lower inflation—contradicted early policy decisions that seemed poised to raise costs instead. Lincicome argues that Americans are perceptive; they can connect the dots. If a leader vows to reduce prices and then enacts policies that lead to price increases, accountability is inevitable. “That guy is going to get blamed,” he asserts, spotlighting the crucial link between economic policy and public perception.
The true barometer for Trump might not come from statistics or economic forecasts but rather from the intimate discussions around dinner tables this Thanksgiving. If families do not experience the relief he assured, then the notion of affordability may remain distressingly out of reach for many. The stakes are high as the holidays approach, and the sentiment of consumers could very well shape political futures.
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