Trump Claims 50% Approval Rating as New Rasmussen Numbers Spark Debate
Former President Donald Trump recently took to social media to announce that his job approval rating has reached 50%. He cited new figures from Rasmussen Reports, stating, “50% job approval—stunning the Experts again.” This post quickly gained traction, generating excitement among supporters, while critics questioned the claim’s validity in light of broader polling trends.
The 50% figure comes from Rasmussen Reports’ daily Presidential Tracking Poll. According to the latest data, 50% of likely U.S. voters approve of Trump’s performance, while 48% disapprove. The remaining 2% of respondents are uncertain. This marks a notable change from ratings just a day earlier when Trump had only 47% approval and 51% disapproval.
Trump frequently employs the phrase “stunning the Experts.” It became a hallmark of his previous campaigns as he used selective polling data to challenge narratives pushed by mainstream media and analysts. His tweet, which quickly spread through conservative circles, included a link to Rasmussen’s website for reference.
What sets Rasmussen apart is its unique polling methodology. Unlike many other firms, which may conduct surveys sporadically, Rasmussen performs daily tracking through telephone and online means. Each night, they survey 300 likely voters, aggregating this data over a five-day rolling average to compile results from approximately 1,500 respondents. They report a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points and a 95% confidence level.
This methodology helps explain some discrepancies between Rasmussen’s results and those of other polling organizations. Historically, Rasmussen tends to show stronger support for Republican candidates, a trend observable since at least 2008. Critics argue that the firm’s automated polling system and its omission from aggregators like FiveThirtyEight reflect an inherent bias. Nonetheless, Rasmussen remains one of the few firms providing daily tracking, making its data significant in discussions surrounding elections.
Diving deeper into the numbers, Rasmussen reported that 30% of respondents “Strongly Approved” of Trump’s performance, while 41% “Strongly Disapproved.” This gives Trump a net Presidential Approval Index of -11, measuring sentiment intensity as devised by Rasmussen. This index shows slight improvement from -12 the day before. For much of Trump’s second term, this Approval Index has lingered in the negative.
“We’re seeing stabilization around the 47–50% range for job approval, but the polarization is still intense,” commented a Rasmussen polling analyst. They noted that while the “Strongly Disapprove” demographic remains significant, there is a steadfast core of supporters that has not wavered.
Trump’s rising numbers coincide with a politically turbulent season. Recent polls from Ipsos, Fox News, and ABC News show increasing voter dissatisfaction with the economy, government response, and both major political parties. A November Fox News survey indicated that 76% of Americans view the economy negatively, while 60% assessed their financial situation as “fair or poor.” In that same poll, 58% disapproved of Trump’s performance, with only 41% approving.
The contrasting numbers incite questions about varying polling methodologies and interpretations. While Rasmussen presents Trump close to or at parity in approval, most other polls listed in aggregators show him at a lower level. Current averages from RealClearPolitics indicate an approval of 43.1% and disapproval at 54.2%. The latest Ipsos/Reuters survey showed his approval at 45%, while a Gallup poll reported it at 40%, with disapproval reaching 57%.
Polling experts highlighted that these differences necessitate careful analysis. Geoffrey Skelley from Decision Desk HQ remarked, “Polling is never about one number. Trends matter. A single poll showing improvement doesn’t override broader negative sentiment.”
Some analysts argue that Rasmussen’s method may successfully tap into enthusiasm among “likely voters,” especially those leaning conservative. Traditional polling methods, which might utilize registered voters or general adult populations, can distort results by including those less engaged with the political sphere.
Nonetheless, skepticism persists. Kyle Kondik, managing editor at the University of Virginia’s Sabato’s Crystal Ball, noted, “Rasmussen does show slightly more Republican-leaning numbers, but the trend is what matters. Trump has a base that’s holding, but he still faces approval ratings below 45% across most polls. Even Rasmussen reflects that a majority disapprove or are neutral.”
Immediate public reactions to Trump’s tweet were notable. Supporters celebrated the number, positing that mainstream media polls misrepresent reality. Detractors argued that the figure represents cherry-picked data. Even among critiques, however, the 50% approval cannot be entirely dismissed.
“Fifty percent is the number Trump’s campaign wants to see going into any national election cycle,” pointed out political strategist Ryan Girdusky. “It may not withstand scrutiny across the board, but if Rasmussen continues to show these levels of approval, it will influence media narratives and Republican donor confidence.”
The broader political landscape indicates a complex situation. Trump’s supporters remain loyal and energized, and within the Republican primary, he continues to lead significantly over other potential candidates, with some surveys placing him 30–40 points ahead. Yet, general election matchups suggest close races. A November 2025 Quinnipiac poll found Trump and Biden tied at 46%, with 8% undecided or leaning toward third-party options. CBS News also reported Trump leading Biden 51–48% in swing states but trailing nationally.
While Rasmussen’s 50% approval is significant, it cannot predict future trends. Experts urge caution in overemphasizing a single poll amid today’s multifaceted information landscape. Yet, Trump’s 50% claim has already reverberated through political discourse, keeping his name and numbers prominent in public discussions.
Should multiple polls trend similarly, the implications could shift. Increased approval ratings may embolden Trump to amplify his campaign activities and push forward policy changes. Conversely, if Rasmussen remains an outlier, it might illustrate a continuing rift in data interpretation within the American political spectrum.
Right now, Trump leverages the 50% figure as a focal point. Whether this statistic will remain relevant in the weeks ahead or fade into the background noise of ambiguous data is yet to be determined.
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