This week, President Donald Trump highlighted a series of economic and policy achievements, asserting they signal a successful second-term agenda. His recent tweet proclaimed, “President Trump silences the ‘experts’ by posting MAJOR economic and policy wins already underway nationwide.” The claims include rising job figures among native-born Americans, record tax refund projections, and stricter immigration enforcement at the southern border.
Among the most notable statistics is September’s jobs report. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that 119,000 jobs were added, far exceeding the 50,000 predicted by economists. This growth has also seen a shift favoring native-born workers, who now account for a majority of new hires—an important reversal from the trend during the post-pandemic recovery.
Trump’s administration attributes this economic upswing to a mix of trade and domestic policies, particularly his extensive tariffs on imports. Using powers granted via the International Emergency Economic Powers Act and Section 232, Trump imposed or increased tariffs on goods from over 60 countries in 2025. These moves, while contentious and facing ongoing judicial challenges, have produced significant federal revenue, with the Tax Foundation estimating $2.3 trillion from tariffs over the next decade.
“Our country has never been in a position like this,” Trump remarked at a recent White House event, emphasizing how tariffs are a key driver of increased revenue.
Tax refunds are another area of focus for Trump, with federal data suggesting that increased tariff revenue, along with changes to tax brackets for 2026, could lead to record average refunds. Early projections from the Treasury Department estimate household refunds could surpass $3,400, largely benefiting middle-income earners and expanding child tax credits.
Inflation, a significant concern in recent years, has also shown signs of improvement. Recent data put the 12-month increase in the Consumer Price Index at 2.7%—a marked decrease from over 9% two years prior and under the average annual rate of 5% during President Biden’s tenure. Economists are divided on the long-term effects of Trump’s tariffs, but current reports indicate stability in critical sectors, such as apparel, where prices have not surged despite high levels of imports from tariffed nations.
Gas prices, a crucial indicator for many families, also reflect positive trends. The national average fell to $2.86 per gallon as the holiday season approaches, the lowest level since early 2020. This decrease can be attributed to more domestic drilling permits and favorable short-term trends in global oil supply.
Border security is a key issue for Trump. His administration reports that for six consecutive months, no illegal immigrants have been released into the interior of the country, a promise likely to resonate with many voters. Instead, migrants are being returned or detained due to enhanced enforcement protocols supported by the Department of Homeland Security.
This crackdown is part of a larger law-and-order initiative encompassing deportations, expanded border barriers, and operations against human trafficking. Federal data shows a notable decline in monthly migrant apprehensions since new measures were fully implemented last April.
Despite the optimistic statistics, broader economic implications remain complex. The Tax Foundation has cautioned that tariffs could effectively increase household taxes, estimating average costs of $1,200 in 2025 and $1,600 in 2026 due to elevated prices and hampered economic growth. Certain sectors have felt the pressure of increasing costs, particularly for raw materials like steel and aluminum, although some protected industries have seen job growth.
Economists have raised concerns about the uneven nature of these gains. Michael Strain, an economic policy studies expert, pointed out that while inflation may be decreasing, Americans remain focused on the overall cost of living. “Even with lower inflation,” he noted, “voters are responding to the level of prices, not just the rate at which they change.”
Indeed, while some inflation metrics have improved, the costs of essentials like housing remain high, primarily due to factors unrelated to tariffs. The cost of shelter has risen 3.4% year over year as of September, impacting the overall CPI amidst stabilization in imported goods prices.
Trump’s trade policies continue to face scrutiny in federal courts, with a ruling on August 29, 2025, declaring key tariffs illegal by exceeding the president’s authority. Still, the ruling allowed tariffs to remain collected during the ongoing appeal. Oral arguments were presented to the Supreme Court on November 5, with a decision expected in early 2026—an outcome that could significantly impact future trade policies.
Amid these legal challenges, the administration cites a boost in consumer sentiment as a positive indicator. The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index announced its first year-over-year increase in four years, which the White House attributes to a mix of falling inflation expectations and anticipated higher tax refunds.
Nevertheless, critique persists. Economist Ben Harris, previously involved with the Treasury under Biden, stated, “Tariffs do provide leverage, but they are also a drag on real income and growth. The administration will have to prove that these gains are sustainable across all sectors.”
The continuity of Trump’s economic strategy will soon be tested during the 2026 midterm elections. Republican candidates have experienced challenges in local contests due to rising affordability concerns. However, in battleground states reliant on manufacturing, Trump’s protectionist stance seems to resonate more strongly.
“We’re building auto plants, we’re building AI plants, we’re leading in AI over China and everybody else,” Trump declared recently. “This is a revolution—a positive revolution—economic revolution like never before.”
While the final verdict on these economic policies is still undetermined, Trump’s supporters are emphasizing lower gas prices, increased job numbers, and larger tax refunds as indicators that his second-term economic vision is taking hold. As the tweet concluded: “It will ONLY GET BETTER FROM HERE into 2026.”
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