Analysis of Ken Paxton’s Early Lead Over Jasmine Crockett in 2026 Senate Poll
In a recent poll by Change Research, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton leads Democratic Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett by 8 points in a hypothetical matchup for the 2026 U.S. Senate seat. With Paxton at 50% and Crockett at 42%, the results echo a larger trend: Republicans tend to maintain their dominance in statewide elections in Texas.
Change Research is known for its reliance on Democratic-leaning methodologies, which has sparked skepticism about the accuracy of its polling among conservative voters. However, the data presented reinforces an established pattern: statewide races in Texas have consistently favored Republican candidates for nearly three decades. In a state that has not seen a Democrat win a statewide election since 1994, Paxton’s lead underscores the Republican stronghold.
The outright declaration in a recent tweet, “Texas IS RED and Crockett WILL NOT win!” exemplifies the prevailing sentiment. There is a deeply rooted belief that despite changing demographics and national political climates, any Democratic success in Texas elections is unlikely. Recent statewide races further bolster this skepticism. In 2022, Governor Greg Abbott won re-election against Beto O’Rourke by an 11-point margin, and Trump maintained a lead over Biden in 2020 by 5.6 points.
Paxton’s trajectory to this point has been anything but smooth. Despite his impeachment by the Texas House in 2023 on corruption allegations, of which he was acquitted by the Senate, his popularity among Republican voters remains intact. Political scientist Mark Jones noted that the Republican primary contest is where the real competition lies. Paxton faces incumbent Senator John Cornyn, who is also seeking re-election. While polling among GOP voters remains tight, this particular poll assumes Paxton will emerge as the Republican nominee.
On the Democratic side, tensions and indecision linger. Jasmine Crockett, a first-term Congresswoman from Dallas, has gained attention through frequent appearances on television and confrontations during hearings. Jones claims, “Democratic voters in Texas are supportive of that fight.” However, Crockett’s progressive stance may not resonate as strongly with the broader Texas electorate, which leans more conservative in rural regions.
The 8-point gap is noteworthy, particularly given Change Research’s background. Critics of the polling methodology question its ability to accurately reflect conservative voter behavior, especially in low-turnout elections. Regardless, Paxton’s lead is clear and pervasive.
As the primary season unfolds, Paxton continues to outperform other Republican figures, particularly among staunch Trump supporters. A survey from the University of Houston’s Hobby School illustrates this advantage, highlighting that 34% of Republican primary voters identified Paxton as their first choice, only slightly ahead of Cornyn at 33%. This support suggests that Paxton’s alignment with Trump bolsters his grassroots appeal, despite any legal challenges he faces.
Even with a slight dip in Trump’s overall popularity in Texas, he remains a significant force in the state’s Republican landscape. A recent poll revealed Trump’s support had declined from 56% to 49%, indicating potential trouble for GOP candidates aiming to broaden their appeal among independents and younger voters. This places Paxton in a favorable position, as his close association with Trump resonates with the conservative base.
For Crockett, the road ahead is strewn with difficulties. Not only does she face a lack of recognition beyond the Dallas area, but she must also confront the historical dominance of Republicans in Texas. Her ability to gain traction among rural, suburban, and Hispanic voters poses a formidable challenge. Polling from recent years indicates a struggle among Democrats to consolidate support, even internally. While Crockett has emerged favorably compared to other Democratic candidates, the party remains fractured, with figures like Beto O’Rourke and state Rep. James Talarico also drawing interest.
“You have a Democratic primary that feels wide open with a lot of different possibilities,” noted pollster Evan Roth Smith. He suggests that uncertainty about the viability of their candidates adds another layer of complexity. Compounding these issues is the redistricting map drawn in 2021, which has fortified Republican majorities in various districts. Though there is a growing urban vote share, turnout among younger and nonwhite voters remains inconsistent—particularly in midterm elections where the GOP has fared well.
Looking towards 2026, the voter sentiment leans toward the GOP’s structural advantage. Paxton’s modest 8-point lead emphasizes the challenges ahead for Crockett. Should Trump throw his support behind Paxton, as expected, the significant hurdles for Democrats could deepen.
While polls are only snapshots of a moment, they influence how campaigns strategize and how voters respond. Without a unified Democratic front and a strong candidate, the prevailing red hue in Texas looks unlikely to fade.
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