China’s birth rate has reached an unprecedented low. In 2025, total births hit just 5.63 per 1,000 people, a drastic decline that has not been seen since the Chinese Communist Party came to power in 1949. As birth rates plummet, the death rate has seen a concerning rise, now at 8.04 per 1,000 people, the highest it has been since 1968. This alarming trend reflects a significant demographic shift and raises questions about the future of China’s population.
The country’s population has now decreased for four consecutive years, falling by 3.39 million to approximately 1.4 billion, according to reports from BBC News. Yue Su, a principal economist with the Economist Intelligence Unit, stated, “The pace of the decline is striking, particularly in the absence of major shocks.” This acknowledgment highlights the ongoing demographic challenges China faces.
China’s one-child policy, introduced in the late 1970s, aimed to control the country’s booming population. However, after its 2015 repeal, the government shifted to a two-child limit, which lasted until 2021, when a three-child policy was adopted. Experts have long warned that the repercussions of the one-child policy persist, contributing to an uneven gender ratio, an aging population, and a shortage of younger individuals to care for the elderly. Between forced abortions and a skewed gender balance, the policy had profound social consequences.
In past decades, the one-child policy sometimes led to tragic outcomes, including infanticide, especially of female infants, and abandonment. Reports indicate that this legacy has also resulted in many Chinese girls being adopted internationally, illustrating the dark side of population control efforts. As demographics shift, the need for a supportive environment for young families has become increasingly critical.
Following the switch to a three-child policy in 2021, government initiatives aimed to spark a “pro-birth culture” have emerged. Alarmingly, over 20 percent of China’s current population is over 60, a figure projected to reach nearly half by 2100, according to the United Nations. As the aging population grows, the implications for economic and social structures become more severe.
In efforts to address these demographic issues, Beijing has begun implementing new taxes on contraceptives and birth control methods, a controversial approach that underscores the urgency of the situation. Concerningly, China also has one of the highest costs of raising a child globally, making family planning an even more daunting challenge, particularly amidst ongoing economic struggles, including a significant real estate crisis.
The convergence of these factors creates a complex scenario for China. With declining birth rates and rising death rates, the demographic landscape is shifting rapidly. As the government grapples with the consequences of decades-long policies, the long-term effects on the nation’s workforce and social stability remain uncertain. The focus now turns to how China will navigate these challenges in the years ahead.
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