In recent times, the Iranian government has adopted a stark approach to handling protests, opting for suppression over dialogue. This tactic is evident in their use of internet blackouts, increased surveillance, and deployment of security forces. According to analysts and human rights groups, the regime is adhering to a familiar strategy intended to quash dissent before it can escalate into widespread unrest.
A nationwide internet blackout has now lasted five days, severely hindering Iranians’ ability to communicate and organize. Local authorities are even disrupting satellite internet services like Starlink, further isolating citizens. Jason Brodsky, a nonresident scholar at the Middle East Institute, noted, “The Islamic Republic only has one answer for the protesters: more violence and more repression.” This steadfast response highlights a pattern where the regime promptly disbands protests with force, viewing unrest solely as a threat to its control.
The trigger for these protests includes severe economic hardships and political repression, dissatisfaction that spans various demographics and regions. High inflation and unemployment are fueling anger at the clerical leadership, challenging the narrative that dissent is limited to urban areas. Brodsky referred to how the regime learned from past experiences in 2019 and 2022 when protests swiftly grew due to widespread sharing of violent imagery online. Now, the regime quickly acts to contain unrest and prevent any of it from gaining momentum.
Brodsky indicated that this “well-worn playbook” involves deploying police forces first, while keeping the more powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Basij militia in reserve. The Iranian government emphasizes rapid responses to quash demonstrations. They increasingly rely on technology for surveillance, utilizing drones to monitor gatherings and track individuals. Brodsky explains that this strategy helps identify protest participants and sheds light on the networks behind the demonstrations.
The gravity of the situation is highlighted by recent reports of escalated violence. Fatalities and arrests have surged, with claims of at least 3,000 people killed and over 10,000 arrested, a stark contrast to previous protests. Rights groups document the government’s reliance on technology for repression, pointing to the use of facial recognition and digital tracking to identify those expressing dissent.
The implications extend to international responses as well. The U.S. has the capacity to deploy non-kinetic options such as cyber warfare, which may effectively counter the Iranian regime’s sophisticated tactics for suppressing dissent. Brodsky highlighted that these capabilities were successfully illustrated in a recent operation against a foreign dictator, reinforcing the notion that cyberattacks could disrupt government communications in Iran.
However, there are significant concerns regarding potential backlash against U.S. actions. Behnam Ben Taleblu from the Foundation for Defense of Democracies cautioned that poorly targeted strikes could push the Iranian populace into a defensive “survival mode,” inhibiting protest activities instead of encouraging them. Conversely, Brodsky suggested that targeted actions against the regime’s jamming technologies could help empower protesters directly.
Furthermore, discussions have emerged around restoring internet access in Iran via Starlink technology, which could bypass state controls. Yet, this endeavor comes with challenges, particularly given the regime’s willingness to target satellite communications. Rights organizations have expressed concern that users of such technologies face significant legal and personal risks.
Despite these risks, there remains a palpable sense of defiance among the Iranian populace. Brodsky asserted that a growing “fearlessness” among protesters complicates the regime’s ability to suppress dissent definitively. As the government continues its crackdown, the prospect of instilling fear appears less achievable, raising questions about the regime’s long-term control.
In a landscape marked by repression and unrest, the Iranian leadership faces a critical challenge. As protests continue to challenge their authority, the balance of power, both domestically and internationally, may be on the brink of a significant shift. The dynamics of fear and resistance are evolving, creating an uncertain future for the Islamic Republic.
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