Donald Trump’s impact on the American economy has once again left traditional economists reeling. The latest GDP growth figures tell a compelling story: a scorching 4.3 percent rise in the third quarter, following a robust 3.5 percent in the second quarter. These numbers starkly contrast with the predictions from many seasoned academic and financial experts, who anticipated high inflation and sluggish growth. In fact, about 90 percent of professional economists missed the mark on forecasting economic performance under Trump. This isn’t merely a simple error; it reflects a persistent bias against Trump’s policies and the results they yield.
Predictions that inflation would exceed 3 percent by 2025 are also proving misguided. Current trends indicate inflation rates may settle closer to 2.7 percent, edging toward the Federal Reserve’s target of 2 percent. The discrepancy between anticipated and actual GDP growth has been significant, nearly doubling expectations since the second quarter.
Academics once feared that Trump’s economic strategy would result in disaster. Paul Krugman, a Nobel laureate and former New York Times columnist, warned of potential stock market crashes and even a second Great Depression. Yet, the stock market today reaches record highs across all three major indices, undermining his dire predictions. While Trump’s tariffs did impact specific commodities—raising prices for aluminum, coffee, and beef—the broader economic growth driven by deregulation, tax cuts, and energy policies belied those fears. The conservative policies implemented have acted as a counterweight to inflationary pressures, showcasing the complexities of economic dynamics that were thoroughly underestimated.
Despite the truth of these economic indicators, the academic elite remains entrenched in their skewed narratives. They continue to put forth predictions of below-average growth, like the latest forecast of 1.9 percent for 2026. This brings to light a vital question: what keeps these economists consistently off-base? Some argue a strong case for “Trump Derangement Syndrome,” suggesting that their disdain for Trump’s policies clouds their judgment and understanding. Others propose that the emotional investment in their theoretical frameworks leads to an unwillingness to acknowledge their miscalculations. After all, recognizing their blunders would force a reevaluation of deeply held beliefs.
The accuracy of these economists’ predictions resembles that of a dart player blindfolded, blindly tossing darts in a crowded bar. If they had any integrity, they might admit their failures openly and learn from them. But it seems unlikely that this will happen. Instead, many will continue to criticize and misjudge the ongoing success of Trumponomics. In doing so, they leave the broader economics field tarnished, reinforcing the notion that it is indeed “the dismal science.”
Stephen Moore, a co-founder of Unleash Prosperity and author of “The Trump Economic Miracle,” encapsulates the disappointing performance of these academic forecasters. Their lack of foresight only serves to underscore the disarray within their ranks as they grapple with the realities of an economy energizing under Trump’s leadership.
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