Recent polling trends surrounding President Donald Trump present a complex picture. While numerous surveys portray his approval ratings as struggling, one pollster stands out by showing a notable recovery. The Insider Advantage poll, conducted February 17-18, reveals Trump’s approval at 50 percent, with 46 percent disapproving. This finding is particularly significant, considering it comes from a firm that correctly forecasted Trump’s victory in 2024. The poll surveyed 800 likely voters and has a margin of error of 3.46 percent.
Matt Towery, a pollster with Insider Advantage, commented on this rebound. He stated, “After a period of weakness in his approval ratings, President Trump has come back to the 50% level.” This level is particularly meaningful as it aligns closely with the margin by which Trump won against Kamala Harris in the last election. Coupled with data from Rasmussen Reports, which also suggests an upward trend in Trump’s approval, it indicates a potential shift in voter sentiment.
Towery noted factors contributing to this rise, including “orderly and strategic” ICE raids and signs of an improving economy. Interestingly, he pointed out that the recent government shutdown seems to have positively impacted Trump’s approval ratings, contrary to previous downturns. Media narratives may portray the president’s numbers as dismal, but these findings contradict that assertion.
White House spokeswoman Taylor Rogers echoed this sentiment, asserting that “President Trump is fighting hard every single day to make life affordable for working people.” She highlighted the administration’s tax cuts, efforts in making housing more affordable, and steps toward American energy dominance as key achievements contributing to Trump’s image among voters.
In contrast, many other recent polls show Trump in less favorable territory. For instance, Reuters/Ipsos reports a much lower approval rating of 38 percent, while Economist/YouGov and Morning Consult both list him at 43 percent. CNN analyst Harry Enten raised concerns about Trump’s standing, suggesting that “he’s way underwater,” and pointed to some of the most negative polling data from earlier readings. Enten questioned the solidity of Trump’s support, suggesting that he may lack a reliable floor beneath his approval ratings.
Moreover, the Rasmussen daily tracking poll currently shows Trump’s approval at 47 percent with a disapproval rate of 52 percent. This figure is an improvement from a recent low of 41 percent, evidence of a possible recovery trend, similar to that which Insider Advantage reports. Both Rasmussen and Insider Advantage were accurate in predicting Trump’s win in 2024, while other firms like Ipsos and Morning Consult had provided forecasts favoring Harris.
The historical performance of Insider Advantage paints an interesting picture regarding Trump’s polling. Although the firm has not conducted nationwide polling in the most recent election cycle, their swing-state surveys consistently pointed toward a Trump victory. For instance, in crucial battlegrounds such as Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina, Insider Advantage correctly indicated Trump’s leads closely related to the actual election outcomes. This track record suggests that their findings could hold more validity now than those of other entities that didn’t align with Trump’s eventual success during the campaign.
In conclusion, while the political landscape can be muddled by various polling methods and interpretations, the resurgence noted by Insider Advantage signals a shift that may not be fully recognized in more mainstream surveys. Trump’s supporters may find encouragement in these numbers, which showcase a potential revitalization of his standing among voters as he navigates his second term.
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