Recent polling data shows that the Los Angeles mayoral race is heating up as Election Day approaches. The contest, featuring three main candidates, has drawn significant attention due to its close margins. For the first time in a while, GOP candidate Spencer Pratt, a former reality television star, is in striking distance of his Democratic opponents, who have long been perceived as the frontrunners in this heavily liberal city.
The current standings reveal that incumbent Mayor Karen Bass is at 26%, with Councilwoman Nithya Raman closely trailing at 25%. Spencer Pratt, with 22%, is gaining momentum after launching his campaign following a personal tragedy—the loss of his home in the Palisades Fire in January 2025. This is more than just a typical mayoral race; it represents a potential shift in the political climate of Los Angeles, a city that has long leaned left.
Polls from the UC Berkeley Los Angeles Times indicate that both Raman and Pratt have seen significant gains, each increasing their support by eight percentage points since March, while Bass appears stagnant by comparison. Once considered comfortably ahead, Bass now faces increasing scrutiny regarding her performance. According to a report from The New York Post, the data marks a notable change in how voters view her administration’s effectiveness.
Political analyst Matt Klink elaborated on the volatility of the race, stating, “Berkeley IGS has generally been reliable in California and in the last L.A. mayor’s race, but this poll is not telling us who wins. It highlights a race that is still very much up for grabs.” He pointed out that the incumbent’s support has noticeably declined, while Raman’s rise is noteworthy. Klink added, “Nithya Raman has some momentum and Spencer Pratt has consolidated a protest lane.” Ultimately, the election’s outcome will hinge on voter turnout, a crucial factor that Klink emphasized.
The competition appears neck-and-neck, with all three candidates within the margin of error. Mark DiCamillo, director of the Berkeley IGS poll, reiterated the importance of turnout as a deciding factor. He identified a distinct landscape in which Bass and Pratt currently share high unfavorability ratings—57% among likely voters in both cases. Bass’s favorable rating has dipped to 35%, while Pratt’s is notably lower at 25%. In contrast, Raman stands out with a net-positive rating of 40%, signifying a more favorable view among the electorate.
The unique dynamics of this race further highlight the potential for change in a city that has predominantly favored Democratic candidates. Pratt’s endorsement from former President Donald Trump could play a significant role, particularly in a political climate where such endorsements have proven beneficial for candidates nationwide. As the election date draws near, all eyes remain on this tight contest, which seems poised for surprises.
The Los Angeles mayoral race is shaping up to be a critical moment for the political scene in one of America’s largest cities. With closely bunched poll numbers and evolving voter sentiments, the outcome is uncertain, but excitement is building as the candidates make their final appeals ahead of the vote.
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