With the June 2 nonpartisan primary quickly approaching, a new poll reveals significant shifts in the race for California governor. The Emerson College Polling and Inside California Politics survey indicates that Republican Steve Hilton currently leads the pack with 17 percent support. This puts him ahead of Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell, who garnered 14 percent, and Sheriff Chad Bianco, also a Republican, who matches Swalwell’s total. Other candidates like former Democratic Rep. Katie Porter and businessman Tom Steyer trail behind with 10 percent and 9 percent, respectively. However, the most notable finding in the survey is the 21 percent of respondents who remain undecided.
The dynamics within the Republican electorate show a tight race, with Hilton holding a slight edge over Bianco—38 percent to 37 percent. Additionally, Hilton has gained favor among independent voters, capturing 22 percent support in this group. Meanwhile, the Democratic side appears more fractured; a mere 23 percent of Democrats support Swalwell, with Porter at 14 percent, Steyer at 12 percent, and a notable 22 percent undecided.
Recent polling trends reveal an interesting development: undecided voters have decreased from 31 percent to 21 percent since December. Conversely, support for both Hilton and Steyer increased by five points each, while Swalwell and Porter saw smaller movements—a two-point increase for Swalwell and a one-point drop for Porter. Bianco, previously leading in December, saw a slight gain, rising to 13 percent.
Under California’s election rules, only the top two candidates will advance to the November election, regardless of party affiliation. Political analyst Matt Klink notes a potential scenario where two Republicans could emerge from the primary, but he anticipates that Democratic party leaders will take action to ensure at least one candidate secures a spot in the runoff. Klink cautions, “the political brains in the Democratic Party will get involved and say we need to make sure we get one of our candidates into the runoff.”
The absence of a definitive Democratic frontrunner raises concerns among party insiders. Paul Mitchell, a Democratic data expert, warns that the fragmentation among Democratic candidates could jeopardize their chances. “There’s six to eight Democratic candidates who are all splitting up the 60 percent of the vote that is going to go to Democrats,” he explains, highlighting a significant risk that could lead to no Democrat making it to the general election.
The uncertainty has California Democratic strategist Steven Maviglio deliberately cautious. He equates the risk of two Republicans advancing to the general election to a hypothetical 11 percent risk of being hit by a car while crossing the street. “I wouldn’t cross the street,” Maviglio says, emphasizing the real threat posed by a divided Democratic field.
In summary, this poll illustrates a critical juncture in California’s gubernatorial race. Hilton’s lead suggests a mounting challenge to Democratic dominance in the state, a trend not seen since Arnold Schwarzenegger’s election in 2006. The coming months will prove pivotal as candidates continue to vie for voter support, and party dynamics become increasingly crucial in shaping the election’s outcome.
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