The Los Angeles mayoral race is heating up as new polling data reveals a competitive landscape. According to a recent Emerson College survey, Republican candidate Spencer Pratt, known for his past as a reality television star, is gaining traction. He now commands 22% of the likely voters, placing him within reach of the incumbent, Mayor Karen Bass, a Democrat, who holds 30%. Meanwhile, progressive City Councilmember Nithya Raman trails in third with 19%.
The Emerson poll, conducted May 9-10, indicates a significant shift in voter sentiment as undecided voters are finally choosing sides ahead of the upcoming June 2 primary. A spokesperson for Bass expressed concerns regarding Raman’s campaign performance, noting, “Nithya Raman started this race with high expectations, but she continues to fall short.” The spokesperson highlighted Raman’s past decisions, like voting to allow encampments near schools, arguing that such policies do not reflect the needs of Los Angeles. The spokesperson also mentioned the party’s confidence in winning against either Pratt or Raman in the general election.
The number of undecided voters has plummeted from 51% in March to just 16% now. This shift is indicative of a race that is becoming more dynamic as preferences solidify. Back in March, Bass enjoyed a significant lead with 20% support, while both Pratt and Raman languished around the 10% mark. In the latest poll, Pratt surged by 12 percentage points, while Bass and Raman increased their totals by 10 points each.
Pratt’s rise can be attributed to his effective political advertising and a debate performance that has drawn attention from across the political spectrum. Democratic strategist Michael Trujillo commented on Pratt’s unexpected popularity during the debates, saying, “Unfortunately, my entire life is talking to people in the industry, but I can report that everyone was pleasantly — or unpleasantly — surprised by Spencer Pratt’s debate performance.”
The polling also uncovers generational divides in voter preferences. Voters over 60 show a preference for Bass, while younger voters under 40 tend to support Raman, though Pratt ranks lower among this group. Many conservatives suggest that the liberal messaging prevalent in education and media influences younger voters’ opinions. Across gender lines, Pratt finds his strongest support among male voters at 30%, while female voters favor Bass, who stands at 36%.
Republican strategist Mike Madrid assesses Bass’s prospects, suggesting she might fare better if Raman is excluded from the general election ballot. “I think the chances of Bass making the runoff are considerably higher than they were before the debate,” Madrid said. He believes Bass has been strategically elevating Pratt to ensure her own chances of survival in the race, suggesting that a runoff featuring Pratt could somehow work in her favor.
Madrid also addressed the overarching context of the race, pointing out that voters in a deeply Democratic city like Los Angeles will likely lean toward establishing continuity with Bass rather than risk electing Pratt, who some view as a Trump-like figure. His observations underline the complex dynamics at play, revealing the tightening grip of the campaigns as they maneuver for voter allegiance.
As the race progresses, momentum is clearly shifting, making the upcoming primary crucial for all candidates involved. The results showcase a fluctuating political landscape where traditional party lines may be redrawn in unexpected ways.
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