President Joe Biden’s State of the Union “bounce” in the polls has vanished.
Any gains the Democrat made in recent months, thanks to a semi-lucid national address, have been blown to smithereens by fresh polling data that reveals he’s sinking even further against former President Donald Trump in a hypothetical general election showdown. A new Rasmussen poll released Friday shows Biden lagging behind Trump by a jaw-dropping 10 points. The poll had respondents picking between three candidates, and they sided with Trump over Biden, 46% to 36%, while independent contender Robert F. Kennedy Jr. claimed 9%. Another 4% said they would vote for someone else, and 5% remained undecided.
Whether Rasmussen, a reputable GOP-leaning pollster, has delivered an anomaly remains to be seen. Other recent polls show Trump leading Biden by a modest 1.5%, per FiveThirtyEight. Yet, a late-April survey by HarrisX and Harvard’s Center for American Political Studies had Trump ahead by 7 points, and a week earlier, CNN put Trump up by 9.
Rasmussen’s final poll before the 2020 election had Biden winning by just 1.5%, not the 4.5% margin he ultimately achieved. Furthermore, the poll’s methodology is still under wraps, leaving some to wonder how it stacks up against other national surveys. But perhaps the most crucial fact is that we’re still six months away from Election Day.
The first half of 2024 has been disastrous for Democrats. A sluggish economy and no relief from the Fed, coupled with student protests erupting over the Israel-Hamas conflict, have forced Biden into defensive mode for months. Core Democratic voters, like young people and people of color, are flocking to Trump at unprecedented rates and have shown unwavering support over the past year.
What remains uncertain is how Trump’s mounting criminal trials will impact the polling landscape in the months ahead. Currently seated in a Manhattan courtroom for the ongoing hush money trial, it’s the one case that seems closest to delivering a verdict before Election Day. Meanwhile, his Georgia election interference trial is mired in prosecutorial setbacks, and his two federal cases are paused as the Supreme Court considers his claims of presidential immunity. An ABC poll suggests that 16% of Trump’s backers would reconsider their support if he’s convicted. But until then, the spectacle of the former president in courtrooms nationwide doesn’t appear to be swaying many opinions.
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