Vice President J.D. Vance is emerging as a formidable contender in the early stages of the 2028 presidential race. A recent poll highlights his competitive edge against prominent Democrats, including California Governor Gavin Newsom. According to the Plymouth Union Public Research survey, Vance enjoys the support of 51 percent of likely voters in a hypothetical matchup, compared to Newsom’s 49 percent.
The poll spanned critical battleground states—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—essential for securing the presidency, especially after President Donald Trump’s term ends. Vance’s victories in five of the seven states underline his growing appeal among voters. Additionally, notable crossover support is evident, with Vance attracting 9 percent of Democrats while Newsom garnered only 7 percent of Republican support.
Despite being early in the political cycle, Vance’s favorability rating stands out. A significant 27 percent of voters view him very favorably, whereas only 21 percent say the same for Newsom. However, Vance does face some challenges; 45 percent of respondents have an unfavorable view of him, but this still leaves him with a slight net positive. In contrast, Newsom struggles with name recognition, as 25 percent of voters reported never having heard of him, while 24 percent view him unfavorably.
Other leading Democrats tested in the poll also displayed significant divisive opinions among voters. Former Vice President Kamala Harris registered a close 49 percent favorability and 46 percent unfavorable rating, while Minnesota’s Democratic Governor Tim Walz received 43 percent positive and 37 percent negative. Pete Buttigieg, the Secretary of Transportation, followed with a 39 percent positive assessment against 32 percent negative, with 30 percent of people unfamiliar with him. Josh Shapiro, the Pennsylvania Governor, fared slightly better with 39 percent positive and 25 percent negative, but 36 percent of respondents said they hadn’t heard of him.
The poll also tested voters’ sentiments on Trump’s “America First” economic strategies, revealing substantial backing. A compelling 66 percent of voters support his economic vision, with 41 percent of Democrats backing the initiative, coupled with 36 percent of Harris voters. An overwhelming 80 percent support requiring foreign companies to manufacture within the U.S. and collaborate with American partners, and nearly three-quarters favor stricter regulations on Chinese companies operating in the country.
Conducted from August 8 to 10 with a sample size of 1,000 likely voters, the poll underscores Vance’s momentum, which is not a singular event. An Emerson College poll from July echoed this sentiment, illustrating Vance’s ability to outperform rival Democrats, including Newsom, Buttigieg, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Vance’s recent win at the CPAC straw poll further solidifies his standing as a key player in the post-Trump landscape. Former President Trump himself remarked on Vance’s potential, stating, “Most likely, in all fairness. He’s the vice president.”
While the numbers may be encouraging for Vance, the political landscape can evolve dramatically in three years. With Trump steering the GOP as a prominent figure and new candidates possibly emerging, the race for the Republican nomination promises to be anything but predictable.
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