China’s recent military parade on September 3 showcased the largest gathering of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) under President Xi Jinping’s command, featuring over 12,000 troops. This event not only highlighted the PLA’s modernization efforts but also signaled Xi’s progress in military reform since outlining his vision in 2017. By establishing benchmarks for 2027 and 2035, Xi aims for a “world-class military” by 2049. The next parade, scheduled for 2025, will serve as proof of these advancements.
During the parade, China publicly unveiled its complete nuclear triad, showcasing land, sea, and air-based nuclear capabilities for the first time. State media promoted the display as a “strategic trump card.” The centerpiece was the Dongfeng-5C intercontinental ballistic missile. This variant can strike any part of the United States with a range of 12,400 miles and can carry up to twelve warheads. Additionally, the mobile DF-61 ICBM made a surprise appearance, a designation not seen since the 1970s.
China also emphasized its expanding hypersonic weapons program. The YJ-15 hypersonic anti-ship missile, designed to be launched from ships or aircraft, depicted China’s intent to penetrate large vessels forcefully. The display included several other hypersonic systems such as the YJ-17, YJ-19, YJ-20, and the newly introduced YJ-21, enhancing their ability to threaten maritime forces while remaining difficult to intercept.
Unmanned and AI-driven platforms were prominently featured. The AJX002, a remarkable 65-foot-long submarine drone, was engineered for covert missions, autonomous detection, and swarm-networked tactics. On land, robotic wolves capable of mine-sweeping and reconnaissance operations demonstrated China’s commitment to integrating artificial intelligence within its military framework.
Analysis of the event revealed a dual nature—both a spectacle and a warning. Eli Ratner, a former Pentagon official, described it as “a powerful demonstration of hard and soft power.” Meanwhile, Meia Nouwens remarked that the showcased systems were intended to convey a message to the United States regarding Taiwan. Analysts remain cautious about China’s military capabilities. Despite the impressive display, much of China’s hardware continues to lack combat testing, contrasting with U.S. military systems that have proven their effectiveness in real-world scenarios.
While the parade confirmed key elements of previous intelligence estimates, it did not necessarily unveil any shocking revelations. China’s nuclear arsenal expansion was validated, aligning with Western assessments that the nation possesses more than 600 nuclear warheads. The display of the DF-5C coincided with U.S. intelligence reports indicating that these developments are progressing quickly.
China’s approach also demonstrated a clear anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) strategy, particularly regarding potential conflicts over Taiwan or in the South China Sea. The focus on hypersonic anti-ship missiles and significant underwater drones illustrates an intent to challenge U.S. naval dominance in the Pacific. These capabilities aim to restrict American access, complicating efforts to defend Taiwan and regional allies.
The parade underscored China’s aims for “integrated joint operations” and “multi-domain” warfare, integrating capabilities across space, cyber, and the electromagnetic spectrum. The introduction of advanced platforms like the folding-wing KJ-600, along with several hypersonic variants, indicated that China is striving for rapid operational readiness, potentially outpacing U.S. estimates.
While China’s advancements are noteworthy, analysts remind us that the U.S. retains a significant operational edge due to its adaptability on the battlefield and decentralized command structure. Western experts caution that most U.S. systems have faced combat challenges, while many of China’s remain untested. The RAND Corporation highlighted limitations in the PLA’s command and training. Despite advancements, issues like training deficiencies, logistical shortcomings, and insufficient technical proficiency persist as hindrances.
Even Chinese analysts have acknowledged these challenges, referring to the “two incompatibles,” indicating a gap between China’s existing capabilities and the demands of modern warfare. The Pentagon has concluded that while the PLA is indeed advancing, its global power projection remains limited, constrained by structural and operational deficiencies.
The parade illustrated that while China’s modernization trajectory is faster than many anticipated, it has not yet succeeded in bridging the gap between capability and execution on a global scale. These insights remind us that underlying challenges continue to inhibit China’s military ambitions.
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