China has recently made headlines by rejecting an offer from President Donald Trump to engage in discussions about nuclear arms reductions. This refusal signals a clear shift in Beijing’s posture, especially as it showcased an array of advanced weaponry during a World War II parade. Accompanying leaders like Vladimir Putin of Russia and Kim Jong Un of North Korea, China displayed a robust arsenal, including novel nuclear delivery systems. The Chinese military highlighted a full triad of capabilities: intercontinental ballistic missiles launched from silos, air-launched ballistic missiles, and submarine-launched missiles.
Just three years prior, China had downplayed its nuclear expansion, insisting it was only maintaining a minimum deterrent for self-defense. Fu Cong, who was then leading the foreign ministry’s arms control department, asserted that the nation only possessed what was necessary to survive a potential first strike and threaten a retaliatory response. Minimum deterrence indicates a strategy where a country must have enough nuclear weapons to survive an attack and convince adversaries that their aggression would provoke a devastating counterstrike.
China still publicly claims a no-first-use policy, meaning it asserts it would use nuclear weapons only in retaliation to an attack. While this rhetoric attempts to reassure the international community, the reality of China’s military investments tells a different story. The increases in their nuclear capabilities suggest a far more aggressive strategy. In 2020, former Stratcom Commander Admiral Charles Richard warned against taking Beijing at its word. He characterized China’s military developments as a “strategic breakout,” highlighting an alarming pace of growth in their nuclear arsenal and military exercises with Russia.
Notably, the timeline is critical. Experts predict that by 2027, China may act on its ambitions to forcibly claim Taiwan. A Department of Defense report anticipated that China would possess over 1,000 operational nuclear warheads by 2030. The report stated, “DoD estimates that the PRC will have over 1,000 operational nuclear warheads by 2030, with continued growth into 2035.” Their nuclear capabilities now encompass low-yield precision strike missiles to intercontinental ballistic missiles with multi-megaton yields, providing a range of options for military escalation.
China’s efforts to produce plutonium—using fast breeder reactors and reprocessing facilities—further contradict their claims of peaceful uses of nuclear technology. This trend raises concerns about transparency in China’s nuclear ambitions. After the recent display of military might at the parade, Admiral Richard remarked, “They are advancing rapidly in all aspects necessary for a military designed for aggression.”
While some in the U.S. acknowledge the need for a quick modernization of America’s nuclear deterrent, gaps remain in responding to the evolving threat posed by China. Decision-makers in the Pentagon are still grappling with the implications of this strategic shift. The Biden administration has yet to implement necessary changes to maintain a credible nuclear deterrent that can counter both China and Russia simultaneously.
Advocates for a robust nuclear strategy suggest several measures to enhance deterrence. It starts with a commitment to modernizing the U.S. nuclear arsenal by upgrading delivery systems, warheads, and the vital command and control infrastructure. Some propose formally terminating the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) with Russia, questioning its efficacy given Russian non-compliance and China’s unregulated nuclear buildup.
Another critical recommendation involves accelerating the development of the Sea-Launched Cruise Missile (SLCM-N), which aims to bolster regional deterrence in the Pacific. The SLCM-N program, launched during Trump’s presidency, aims to deter potential adversaries by demonstrating U.S. nuclear flexibility and capability. As the U.S. Air Force prepares to introduce the next-generation B-21 bomber, its potential as a deterrence tool cannot be understated. This stealth technology will play a crucial role in countering threats within enemy territory and securing alliances in a complex landscape.
China’s portrayal of its nuclear posture as a mere minimum deterrent coupled with claims of no-first-use lacks credibility. The evidence suggests a far more aggressive and expansive nuclear strategy. To preserve peace in a rapidly changing global environment, U.S. officials must act decisively and bolster nuclear deterrence to address these challenges effectively. The stakes are high, and swift action is necessary to confront a rising adversary intent on expanding its military capabilities.
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