Upon returning from China, a unique perspective emerged from the first House delegation visit since 2019. Meeting with Premier Li Qiang and other senior officials, the bipartisan group focused on urgent matters such as military communication, trade, nuclear proliferation, and the fentanyl crisis. The atmosphere, from the moment of arrival, was strikingly reminiscent of the Cold War—infused with security concerns, mutual distrust, and rigid ideologies. This experience felt like stepping back into the Soviet Union of the 1980s.
However, there is a critical distinction: while the Soviet Union was stagnating, China continues to rise. This situation reflects a historical phenomenon described by Graham Allison as the “Thucydides Trap,” which captures the complex relationship between established powers and their up-and-coming counterparts. As history shows, such scenarios often escalate into conflict. The challenge for America lies in navigating this landscape while safeguarding national interests and values. After personal observations in Beijing, the belief solidified that avoiding war with China is feasible… if approached with clarity, strength, and unity.
From in-depth conversations during the visit, five key insights became apparent. First, enhancing dialogue is not a sign of weakness; rather, it serves as a critical safeguard against miscalculations. The six-year gap since the last congressional delegation should never recur. Regular visits to both Taiwan and Beijing by U.S. lawmakers are essential. The reestablishment of high-level military hotlines is crucial to preventing crises in regions like the Taiwan Strait or South China Sea from spiraling out of control.
Second, while China showcases impressive military and economic power, its strength may be overstated. The quick pace at which it can convert ideas into products is noteworthy… six of the world’s largest ports and significant investments in research and education underscore this. Yet, this rapid advancement is accompanied by glaring vulnerabilities. State control enhances operational efficiency but also amplifies errors, as seen with missteps in handling COVID-19, an overextended real estate sector, and crippling levels of debt. With its population shrinking for the first time, the long-term sustainability of this growth is in doubt. Additionally, China’s assertive “wolf-warrior” diplomacy alienates regional partners, while its alliances with Russia and North Korea may alienate neighbors who see Beijing’s ambitions as a threat.
Third, reinforcing regional partnerships is vital. America’s greatest strength lies not just in military might, but in the alliances formed with countries like Japan, South Korea, Australia, and India. Together, these nations represent a significant portion of the global economy and a united front against coercion from Beijing. Their collective GDP surpasses $40 trillion and pools the resources of over two billion individuals—none of whom wish to live under the shadow of Chinese dominance. Strengthening these alliances is America’s best deterrent against potential aggression.
Fourth, even in a competitive relationship, pursuing mutual interests can be beneficial. The fentanyl crisis in America, linked to chemical precursors produced in China, demands cooperation. If China seeks a more stable relationship, addressing the fentanyl issue is essential. Moreover, there exists a historical precedent for cooperation on nuclear proliferation. Both nations have suffered from the consequences of drug activity and can find common ground in tackling these pressing challenges, fostering trust in the process.
Finally, renewing American strength domestically is imperative. Current leadership outpaces China, but the future will depend on addressing existing governance issues. The path to maintaining a competitive edge in technology, infrastructure, and military capabilities requires breaking down bureaucratic barriers and tackling the national debt. Viewing America’s debt crisis through a lens of national security makes it even more pressing. Proper preparation—encompassing our economy, alliances, and national resolve—can deter war with China. The goal is not encirclement but the preservation of liberty and peace through strength.
During the Cold War, American strength coupled with robust alliances and firm confidence in its core values ultimately prevailed. While the current discourse with China might not be a direct reenactment of that era, it poses a complex challenge that demands strategic engagement… an enduring commitment to channel rising ambitions toward peaceful outcomes. It is imperative that future Congressional delegations to Beijing remain frequent and substantial to navigate this critical relationship effectively.
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