Driving along Route 40 in southern New Jersey, one cannot help but appreciate the lush landscapes that lend the state its “Garden State” moniker. For Jack Ciattarelli, the Republican candidate for governor, these picturesque views present both a promise and a challenge. Right now, Democrat Rep. Mikie Sherrill holds a slim five-point lead in the polls. Yet, history tells a different tale. In 2024, when polls predicted that President Donald Trump would lose New Jersey by significant margins, he ultimately fell short by only six points. Ciattarelli, too, exceeded expectations in 2021, despite losing. Both campaigns recognize an important fact: if polls reflect a similar trend as in past cycles, Ciattarelli might already be ahead.
This Friday, Ciattarelli will headline a rally in Wildwood, a southern shore town, alongside local officials and conservative figures like Jack Posobiec and Scott Presler. This event not only highlights the importance of South Jersey in the gubernatorial race but also reflects the enthusiasm Republicans must harness to energize voters in this largely rural area. In urban settings like Newark or Hoboken, volunteers can cover a hundred doors in a single block during get-out-the-vote efforts. The stark contrast in Cape May County, however, is evident. The homes are spread out, making canvassing less effective. Therefore, fostering voter enthusiasm emerges as a critical strategy.
Recent polling from Fox News provides a ray of hope for Ciattarelli. The survey reveals that 50% of his supporters express enthusiasm about the election, in contrast to just 42% for Sherrill. During a debate last Wednesday, Ciattarelli maintained a positive focus, addressing pressing issues such as lowering energy costs — a primary concern for voters — along with infrastructure and education improvements. In contrast, Sherrill’s performance stood out for a peculiar claim, accusing Ciattarelli of being responsible for the deaths of “tens of thousands” due to materials produced by a medical publishing company he once owned. While this accusation seems outrageous, it serves a tactical purpose. Aggressive campaigns that resort to mudslinging can suppress voter enthusiasm, often aligning with Democratic victories in New Jersey.
For Ciattarelli, another encouraging sign is the proximity of the race with nearly a month remaining until election day. In his previous campaign, he experienced a late surge that brought him close to victory. A similar scenario played out in New York, where Lee Zeldin’s late rally fell short against Gov. Kathy Hochul. Ciattarelli now has the opportunity to present his vision for the future of New Jersey, demonstrating not just that he has a chance but that he can improve the state.
Sherrill’s current advertisements focus heavily on linking her opponent to Trump. Not long ago, that strategy seemed sound. However, as Trump stands poised to facilitate Middle East peace and secure the release of hostages held by Hamas, even some of his critics are acknowledging these accomplishments. This evolving political landscape may also favor Ciattarelli’s strategy of expressing support for Trump while asserting his independence from him. Voters who view Trump’s presidency unfavorably will likely remain opposed to voting Republican, yet their numbers appear to be diminishing.
This Friday’s rally should provide insight into the energy surrounding Ciattarelli’s campaign. The event will also include a memorial service for Charlie Kirk. In May 2020, Trump held a rally in Wildwood that drew unexpectedly large crowds during a time when his re-election appeared uncertain. That event gave his campaign an essential boost. Now, Ciattarelli aims to capture that same spirit on the very beaches where Trump once held a pivotal moment in his campaign.
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