The latest St. Pete Polls survey signals a strong lead for Rep. Byron Donalds in the crowded early stages of the 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary. Conducted from October 13–15, the poll showcases Donalds at 39%, positioning him significantly ahead of opponents like Lt. Gov. Jay Collins and former House Speaker Paul Renner, who sit at just 4% and 3%, respectively. This advantage is amplified by the endorsement from former President Donald Trump, and the numbers reflect how that endorsement sways voter preference.
One of the most striking aspects of this poll is the undecided voter segment; at 54%, it suggests a volatile landscape where opinions could still shift. Even as Donalds commands a solid 35-point margin over his nearest rival, the potential for change remains high. A head-to-head matchup indicates that when informed of Trump’s backing, Donalds garners 52% of the vote to Collins’ meager 12%. This is a noteworthy 40-point disparity that illustrates Trump’s powerful influence in the primaries.
Furthermore, when matched against Florida First Lady Casey DeSantis—who has yet to declare her candidacy—Donalds again shows dominance, leading 47% to 21%. This data underscores Donalds’ strength, even when pitted against a prominent figure like Casey DeSantis. Though she may enjoy a robust profile, her support does not equate to that of Donalds, and the gap only widens with endorsements factored in.
The survey involved 1,034 likely Republican primary voters and reports a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points, making the results statistically significant. Notably, the poll also captures the broader sentiments within Florida’s Republican base. A substantial 82% approval rating for Trump’s performance highlights his enduring popularity, while Governor DeSantis enjoys a slightly higher approval of 85%. However, the poll reveals that Trump’s endorsement plays a pivotal role in shaping candidate support during the gubernatorial race.
Analyzing the data, experts note that when voters learn of Trump supporting Donalds, their backing rapidly increases. Conversely, it appears that the endorsement of a DeSantis rival carries less weight in swaying undecided voters. This delineation is crucial for strategists in Tallahassee, revealing vital insights into how endorsements shift the political landscape leading to the 2026 primary elections.
Yet, it’s essential to approach these numbers with caution. With half of the electorate still unsure, the race is far from settled. Casey DeSantis has not officially entered the race, and other potential candidates may yet emerge, altering the dynamics. Variables like name recognition and campaign infrastructure will ultimately influence outcomes once voters become more informed.
The powerful impact of Trump’s endorsement is evident; it serves as a critical advantage for Donalds, enhancing his early momentum. This trend mirrors national patterns of Trump’s significant sway over Republican primaries. In Florida, where his influence has historical roots, support appears to solidify around candidates he backs.
Looking ahead, the entry of Casey DeSantis could further complicate the race. However, unless she can effectively counter Trump’s endorsement and Donalds’ established lead, her campaign might struggle for traction. For the moment, Donalds is solidifying his position as the frontrunner in the upcoming primary.
Ultimately, the St. Pete Polls data offers a glimpse into how early endorsements can shape electoral outcomes. Donalds, with his conservative messaging and alignment with voter priorities, is leveraging this endorsement effectively. If trends hold, candidates weighing their chances must carefully consider entering a race dominated by a Trump-supported frontrunner. Without significant shifts, the pathway to the 2026 GOP nomination in Florida could indeed be firmly through Byron Donalds.
"*" indicates required fields
