Dr. Mehmet Oz has spotlighted a critical issue: declining birthrates in the United States. At a recent health policy forum, he endorsed President Donald Trump’s new focus on reversing this trend. The administrator of the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) did not mince words when he said, “There are gonna be a lot of Trump babies. I think that’s probably a good thing.” His statement reflects an urgent concern based on hard statistics.
Current data shows that the U.S. total fertility rate dropped to 1.62 in 2023, far below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman. “You have to address the fact we had 3.6 million babies last year,” Oz noted, highlighting that this number is 500,000 short of what is needed for population replacement. As Oz pointed out, the dwindling birthrate presents both economic and social challenges. A shrinking workforce could jeopardize key programs like Social Security and Medicare, which rely on steady contributions from workers.
The implications are stark. As reported, there are now only 2.7 workers supporting each retiree, a figure that could dip to below 2.0 by the 2030s if the birthrate doesn’t recover. “You can’t fund Medicare forever on fewer and fewer workers paying in,” Oz argued. The dynamics surrounding family formation and reproducing citizens are no longer merely private decisions; they are becoming vital national issues.
Trump’s administration seems poised to treat policies around family size much differently from previous administrations. Previously, family size was framed as a private matter; yet this administration is positioning it as a cornerstone of economic strength and national security. “If we do not have strong American families, we do not have a strong America,” Trump articulated during a 2025 State of the Union speech.
Current demographic trends are troubling. More marriages are ending in divorce, and many young Americans face significant barriers to starting families. The median age is rising, and a CBS report indicates nearly one in four Americans aged 40–44 are childless. Oz’s vision for combating these trends involves examining potential incentives for families, as well as broadening support structures. He has suggested possible initiatives, including expansions of child tax credits and financial incentives for marriage.
Oz has acknowledged the challenges young Americans face today. “We’re telling young Americans through our messaging and our policies that having families is too hard, too expensive, or even selfish,” he stated. Those who do not expect to have children cite concerns over job pressure and financial instability as primary reasons for delaying or avoiding family formation. A Pew Research Center study showed that 44% of U.S. adults under 45 without children have resigned themselves to the idea of remaining childless.
Learning from countries like Japan and South Korea, which have struggled with low birthrates for decades, the Trump administration is signaling a shift in approach. These nations face severe labor shortages and high dependency ratios as their populations age. The dire situation in South Korea, which reported a fertility rate of just 0.72 in 2023, serves as a cautionary tale.
Despite potential resistance, raising birthrates could emerge as a key initiative for the Trump administration. Critics may frame this as government overreach into personal lives, but Oz and other supporters assert that action is crucial given the implications for economic stability and social fabric. “We need young Americans to start families, not delay them forever,” Oz emphasized, framing it as more than a cultural desire—it is a fiscal necessity.
As of now, no executive orders or formal legislative proposals have been made public. However, Oz’s enthusiastic remarks signal that a policy shift towards encouraging family formation may soon be on the horizon. “There are gonna be a lot of Trump babies,” he reiterated, signaling optimism about the administration’s commitment to this objective. The message is clear: addressing the decline in birthrates is seen as not just important, but imperative for the future of the country.
"*" indicates required fields
