Former President Donald Trump has revived discussions around the Abraham Accords, emphasizing the potential for expansion as he signals optimism about Arab countries joining the normalization agreements with Israel. His recent comments highlight Saudi Arabia as a crucial player in this diplomatic landscape. Trump stated, “I think they’re gonna all go in very soon,” reflecting his belief that the kingdom’s involvement could spur a domino effect throughout the region.
The Abraham Accords, initiated in 2020, transformed Middle Eastern politics by establishing formal ties between Israel and several Arab nations, including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco. This move was significant, representing the first recognition of Israel by Arab states since 1994. The agreements were formalized at a ceremony attended by Trump, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and foreign ministers from the UAE and Bahrain, showcasing a landmark event in U.S.-Middle East relations.
Amid renewed interest in the Accords, indications suggest that both the Biden administration and officials from the Trump era are keen on further expansion. U.S. Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff pointed to forthcoming “pretty big announcements,” hinting at new countries potentially aligning with the existing framework. Saudi Arabia remains central to these developments, seen as a linchpin that could greatly influence the normalization process.
Saudi Arabia’s significance is multifaceted, stemming from its political clout, religious authority, and economic leverage through substantial oil reserves. The kingdom’s entry into the Accords would not only reshape its own diplomatic relations but could fundamentally alter the entire geopolitical structure of the Middle East. Trump reiterates this, saying, “When Saudi Arabia goes in, everybody goes in,” conveying the widespread ramifications of such a move.
One of the driving forces behind this regional pivot is the shared concern over Iran’s ambitions, particularly its nuclear program. As Trump noted, obstacles persist due to ongoing conflicts, especially Iran’s influence. Recent military and diplomatic actions, including a ceasefire involving Iran and Israeli-backed forces, have rekindled dialogue among various nations, suggesting a shift in the status quo.
In a recent interview, Witkoff clarified the stakes involved, emphasizing that any nuclear enrichment by Iran constitutes a “red line” that could destabilize the region. The hope is that more Arab nations will perceive a united front with Israel as a way to counteract Iranian aggression, especially given the volatile nature of diplomacy with Tehran.
Economic factors also play a critical role in these dynamics. The Abraham Accords have resulted in over $791 million in defense trade since 2020 between Israel and its new partners, alongside a growth in commercial ties across sectors like technology, energy, healthcare, and tourism. Such economic benefits could incentivize hesitant nations, like Oman and Mauritania, to pursue normalization.
However, Saudi Arabia holds a stronger negotiating position than previous signatories. Past deals involved significant U.S. incentives, such as the recognition of Morocco’s claims and Sudan’s removal from terrorism lists. Should a Saudi-Israeli agreement materialize, it would likely come with substantial U.S. commitments concerning arms sales, security guarantees, or even nuclear energy cooperation for peaceful purposes.
The path to normalization is fraught with challenges. The 2023 Hamas attack on Israel and subsequent conflict have created backlash in some Arab states, leading to actions like Bahrain recalling its ambassador and scaling back joint events. Public sentiment in these nations remains skeptical, with many viewing normalization as a betrayal of Palestinian aspirations for statehood.
In this fragile environment, any new entries to the Accords carry heightened risks for Arab leaders. Yet shifting strategic circumstances, including Iran’s military challenges and ongoing economic pressures, could influence outcomes. Trump’s remarks about a potential uptick in interest from Arab leaders—“They have [signaled interest] as recently as yesterday”—suggest that opportunities for peace might be closer than many think, especially as tensions in the region show signs of easing.
Trump continues to frame the Accords as part of his legacy in Middle Eastern diplomacy, reflecting on the efforts of his administration to foster alliances in the Gulf and Africa. The Abraham Accords symbolize not just a diplomatic breakthrough but also a pragmatic approach to international relations, achieved without military intervention and limited costs to U.S. taxpayers.
As Trump underscores, the idea of “long-lasting peace” in the region rests on the delicate interplay of power, negotiations, and external influences. The question remains whether this momentum will translate into tangible progress, contingent on evolving regional dynamics and future U.S. leadership.
Eyes are set on Riyadh. If Saudi Arabia aligns with the Abraham Accords as Trump predicts, it would not only reshape relations between Arab states and Israel but also solidify a significant U.S.-led realignment in Middle Eastern politics—an outcome decades in the making.
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