CNN’s leading data analyst, Harry Enten, painted a troubling picture for the Democrats as they head toward the 2026 midterms. During a recent segment with Kate Bolduan, he discussed how the party’s odds of regaining control of the House of Representatives have sharply diminished. With data from the Kalshi Prediction Market, Enten revealed that just six months ago, Democrats had an impressive 83% chance of winning. Today, that number has plummeted to 63%. Meanwhile, the GOP’s prospects have soared from 17% to 37%.
Enten’s analysis captures a shift that many political observers have sensed. His words echo a sense of urgency: “So, it will look like a pretty clear Democratic win in the House come next year has become much closer to a toss-up at this point.” This stark contrast illustrates how quickly political fortunes can change. The Democrats’ fading chances contrast sharply with their previous stronghold; they had a solid grip on voter sentiment back in 2017 and 2018.
He delved into the data, comparing the current situation with earlier cycles. “You see plus three Democrats in 2025 in April,” he noted, referencing how Democrats were positioned in similar timeframes in past election cycles. Yet, as he indicated, the party is not keeping pace with its historical performance. Whereas they enjoyed an eight-point advantage in 2017, they are now struggling to maintain even a modest lead. “The bottom line is, it hasn’t happened… Democrats have stayed basically steady,” he remarked.
The numbers tell a concerning story. The Democrats may have a slight edge, but they are falling well behind their historical standards. Enten pointed out that the current generic ballot numbers are a stark reminder of how distant they are from the strong leads they established in prior years. “Look at where they were. They were way out ahead back in 2017 on the generic congressional ballot,” he emphasized.
As Enten wrapped up his analysis, he raised a crucial question: Is a plus-three advantage enough in this shifting political landscape? With redistricting looming, the worry is palpable. His insights pose more questions than answers about the path forward for the Democrats as they approach the midterms.
Enten’s clear-eyed assessment resonates deeply, highlighting the precarious position of the Democratic Party as it navigates the tumultuous waters of voter sentiment and electoral politics. The next couple of years will be critical, as the data suggests that past successes are not an assurance of future victories.
"*" indicates required fields
