Republicans Lead in Mail-In Ballot Returns As New Jersey Gubernatorial Race Enters Final Stretch
The race for governor in New Jersey is heating up as the November 5, 2025 election approaches. Recent updates reveal that Republicans have gained a slight advantage over Democrats in mail-in ballot return rates. This shift, highlighted by election tracker Michael Pruser, indicates robust enthusiasm among Republican voters just before early in-person voting begins.
As of mid-October, 43.8% of Republicans who requested mail-in ballots have already cast their votes. This tops the 42.7% return rate of Democrats. In contrast, unaffiliated voters are lagging behind significantly, with only 25.2% returning their ballots. Despite Democrats holding a numerical advantage of around 146,000 mail-in ballots overall, Republicans have consistently outperformed them in return rates from the start of this election season.
A viral post on social media underscored this momentum: “Not a single day has gone by this entire election season that Republicans did not lead Democrats in the mail-in return rate—a good sign they are fired up.” The post reflects excitement and emphasizes the urgency of GOP turnout in the remaining days: “HOLD STRONG and then surge to the polls this weekend—that is the play.”
This spike in Republican engagement coincides with Jack Ciattarelli’s campaign as the GOP nominee for governor. Ciattarelli is eyeing victory in his third gubernatorial bid and believes that grassroots energy and changing registration trends could finally flip New Jersey’s top office to Republican control.
“The energy across the state is electric,” Ciattarelli declared during a recent diner visit. He senses a strong desire for change among New Jersey voters.
Ciattarelli is strategically targeting areas where Republicans have historically struggled against a dominant Democratic presence. His team has made significant efforts to rally support in places like Hudson and Passaic counties, where the GOP is beginning to see measurable successes.
Data from the New Jersey Division of Elections shows that between November 2021 and October 2025, Republican voter registration increased by 10.9%. This growth surpasses both Democratic and independent gains, aligning with a national trend of working-class voters shifting toward the Republican Party. Notably, in the 2024 presidential election, Kamala Harris won New Jersey by only six points—an alarming low for Democrats in this typically blue state.
Ciattarelli’s campaign has gained traction from notable endorsements, including support from Trump and key surrogates like Vivek Ramaswamy and Congressman Byron Donalds. This strategic backing aims to mobilize low-turnout conservative voters, particularly those who supported Trump in 2024 but have historically abstained from state elections.
“We’re counting on you,” Ramaswamy urged at a tele-rally. “This is bigger than one election. It’s about proving that every state, even a deep blue one, is in play when patriots show up.”
Trump’s influence remains strong in this election cycle. He has endorsed Ciattarelli and plans to hold several tele-rallies as election day nears. Ciattarelli has reciprocated this support, stating, “I’d certainly give the president an A. I think he’s right about everything that he’s doing.”
Despite the Republican enthusiasm, Democrat Mikie Sherrill remains the frontrunner according to public polls. An early October Fox News poll indicated Sherrill holds a five-point lead over Ciattarelli. However, she faces challenges that could complicate her campaign.
Last month, the National Personnel Records Center mistakenly released Sherrill’s military records to a Ciattarelli-aligned activist. These records, which included details about her Naval Academy graduation, have drawn scrutiny. Moreover, Sherrill has been criticized for allegedly delaying stock disclosures while serving in Congress—claims she firmly denies.
With significant backing from Democratic leaders such as Barack Obama and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, Sherrill has attempted to frame Ciattarelli as being beholden to corporate interests and the national MAGA agenda. She has criticized his connections to pharmaceutical companies associated with the opioid epidemic, claiming he profited while “tens of thousands of New Jerseyans died.”
“What he never learned, despite his graduation walk, is accountability and integrity,” Sherrill remarked during a recent debate, suggesting this disqualifies him from office.
Ciattarelli responded emphatically during that same debate: “First of all, shame on you.” He showcased his determination to push back against Sherrill’s attacks.
The tightness of this race serves as a warning for Democrats, particularly given the disparity in mail-in ballot returns. While Democrats maintain a sizable registration advantage, Republican turnout has proven to be more disciplined—a trend that could have lasting implications.
This gubernatorial race carries national significance as New Jersey is one of only two states holding a governor’s election in 2025. Observers across the political landscape will be watching closely, as the outcome could signal broader voter sentiment ahead of the 2026 midterms.
Sherrill has focused her campaign on showcasing infrastructure investments and promoting Governor Phil Murphy’s progressive agenda, including transit expansions and renewable energy initiatives. However, her message has been muddled by controversy regarding federal funding cuts to the Gateway Project, a key transit initiative for New Jersey. The halting of funding earlier this year under Trump’s administration complicates her claims, as does her criticism of Ciattarelli’s perceived inaction on these cuts.
“I’m fighting for the people of New Jersey. He’s fighting to excuse Trump. It’s unacceptable,” Sherrill asserted at a press event, illustrating her stance against the former president’s influence on state matters.
For Ciattarelli, the focus is less on Trump and more on linking New Jersey’s economic strife and crime issues to failed Democratic leadership. He points to the crisis surrounding fentanyl as a result of border security lapses and pledges to work with any president to safeguard New Jersey residents.
“No matter who it is that’s in the White House, my job is to stand up for the 9.3 million residents of this state,” he remarked, painting himself as the defender of his constituents.
This weekend’s early voting is poised to be a pivotal moment for both parties. Republican operatives are banking on their mail-in success translating into a strong in-person turnout as well. Data analyst Michael Pruser suggests that this combined approach might finally help the GOP close the historical turnout gap in off-year elections.
Although Democrats continue to dominate local governments across most counties and have traditionally benefited from comprehensive get-out-the-vote efforts, 2025 could differ significantly. Republican campaign offices are showing greater activity statewide than in previous elections. A growing national discontent concerning inflation, immigration, and crime may also drive conservatives to the polls in unexpected numbers.
Ciattarelli, optimistic and on message, concluded a recent rally with a call to action: “Championship teams finish strong.”
With just 15 days left until Election Day, the stakes are clear. For Democrats, preserving a vital governorship and showcasing party unity is essential. For Republicans, it’s an opportunity to demonstrate that strategic voter engagement can indeed triumph over a storied blue legacy.
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