A recent poll brings troubling news for California Governor Gavin Newsom as he appears to be losing ground in the race for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination. According to Noble Predictive Insights, former Vice President Kamala Harris leads with 33% support among Democrats and 27% among independents, while Newsom trails significantly at 13% and 3% respectively. This marks a notable shift from an August poll which showed Newsom ahead of Harris, leading her 25% to 19%.
Newsom’s previously perceived advantage may be slipping away, as competition from other candidates like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Pete Buttigieg seems weak—both are further behind, sitting at 8% and 7%. Critics argue that Newsom’s recent aggressive social media strategy, particularly his labeling of Trump and Republicans, could be hurting his appeal. For instance, his incendiary remarks aimed at Stephen Miller, calling him a “fascist” and “SS” shortly after a tragedy involving Charlie Kirk have drawn ire and could alienate some potential supporters.
As Newsom navigates this challenging landscape, questions arise about whether this poll reflects deeper issues within his standing among Democrats and independents. His recent Twitter exchanges also present an uneasy picture of his public persona. In response to a social media post from the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), which humorously suggested Newsom had “shown up to the riot,” the governor fired back, calling them an “embarrassment.” Such exchanges reveal a reactive side that might not resonate well with voters.
In this charged political atmosphere, former President Donald Trump capitalized on Newsom’s struggles during a social media barrage aimed at a past rival. “Gavin Newscum is way down in the polls,” he proclaimed, framing Newsom as emblematic of California’s problems. Trump’s comments, both direct and indirect, serve to reinforce the narrative that Newsom is failing as a leader in the Golden State.
Moreover, Trump’s critical remarks regarding state leaders, including comparisons between Newsom and Maryland Governor Wes Moore, add fuel to the fire. He positions himself as a problem-solver while mocking Newsom’s perceived inability to manage crime effectively. Trump asserts that, unlike Newsom, he has helped bring crime down to “virtually NOTHING” in Washington, D.C., contrasting that with the challenges still facing cities like Chicago and Los Angeles.
The polling data and the surrounding commentary suggest that Newsom faces major hurdles if he intends to pursue a presidential bid. As his aggressive social media strategies seem to backfire, it remains to be seen if he can regroup and recapture voter confidence. Newsom’s path forward will require more than just bravado; it will demand a clear, effective message that resonates with voters exhausted by division and discontent.
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