Democrats Expand Early Voting Lead in New Jersey as GOP Eyes Critical Turnaround
The early numbers from New Jersey’s in-person voting reveal a widening gap for Democrats in the 2025 gubernatorial race. As of October 26, reports from VoteHub indicate that 68,665 Democrats have already voted early, comprising 42% of total votes cast. Republicans trail behind at 38.7%, with 63,178 ballots. Non-affiliated and third-party voters make up the remaining 19.3%, equaling 31,585 votes.
On the first day of early voting, Democrats led by 2.8 percentage points. By the second day, that margin grew to 3.4 points, raising concerns among Republican strategists who are eager to see Jack Ciattarelli close the gap. One political analyst noted, “I don’t like seeing these numbers if Jack Ciattarelli is to pull off a flip. Republicans MUST take the lead this week…” Such sentiments echo the anxiety among GOP supporters as the early voting period ramps up.
This early deficit is not a new challenge for Republicans in New Jersey. Last year, they faced a similar situation but managed to turn the tide in the final days of early voting. With their eyes on a repeat performance, strategists hope to see increased turnout from independents and even some crossover from Democrats to Republicans.
“Jack has to crush it with independents,” stressed a GOP strategist to VoteHub, highlighting the uphill battle facing Ciattarelli. Current turnout levels indicate a strong Republican effort, but not strong enough to establish a lead before November 4, the official Election Day.
Who’s on the Ballot
In this closely watched race, voters are choosing between Democrat Mikie Sherrill, who has a military background and a centrist platform, and Republican Jack Ciattarelli, a businessman who previously nearly unseated Governor Phil Murphy. Sherrill emerged victorious from a five-way primary with 34% of the vote, bolstered by name recognition and endorsements from significant Democratic figures. Ciattarelli, on the other hand, dominated a divided Republican field, securing nearly 68% of the primary votes while receiving Trump’s endorsement—a significant motivator for conservative voters.
Early Voting Trendlines
As of October 25, New Jersey’s early voting period has begun, narrowing in on momentum indicators for both parties. Over the first two days, Democrats’ lead has increased incrementally. The numbers tell part of the story:
- Day 1: Democrat lead: +2.8 percentage points
- Day 2: Democrat lead: +3.4 percentage points
- Total early votes cast (in-person): 163,428
- Democrats: 68,665 (42%)
- Republicans: 63,178 (38.7%)
- Other/Unaffiliated: 31,585 (19.3%)
Analysts caution that while the margins are notable, they are not necessarily unbridgeable. “If Republicans don’t at least close the gap in the next few days, it becomes much harder for Ciattarelli to win,” commented a campaign insider, pointing to the possibility that rising turnout could change the dynamics of the race.
Breaking Down the Numbers
Currently, Democrats lead by just over 5,400 votes in early in-person casting. This margin, while manageable, underscores the urgency for Republicans. To shift the momentum, Ciattarelli’s campaign must significantly boost turnout in pivotal areas, particularly in suburban counties such as Ocean, Monmouth, and Somerset, where the GOP has seen growth in recent elections.
Independent voters, constituting about 40% of the state’s electorate, will play a crucial role in the election’s outcome. With nearly one in five early voters not aligning with a major party, which way they break will be pivotal. Polling leading into early voting suggested a tight race, with varying outcomes reported by different surveys.
Mail-In Ballots Already Shaping the Field
Additionally, more than 400,000 mail-in ballots have already been returned, further complicating the landscape. Democrats lead in this area as well, accounting for 62.8% of the returned ballots. Yet, Republicans are experiencing a slight uptick in their return rate, with 48.5% compared to Democrats’ 48.0%. This suggests a level of enthusiasm among GOP voters that may prove beneficial as the election nears.
Looking Ahead
With Democrats broadening their early voting lead, Ciattarelli’s campaign heavily banks on a strong Election Day turnout. His close performance in the previous gubernatorial election positioned him well for recognition as a serious contender. Despite his loss by just over three points in a predominantly blue state, the current environment, rife with economic discontent and increased tax burdens, may play into Republican hands.
Democrats are counting on a robust urban turnout, centering on issues such as reproductive rights and environmental policies, which resonate particularly well in strongholds but could risk alienating moderate swing voters facing rising living costs.
As the early voting period progresses, both party ground games will be tested. For Republicans, sustaining or gaining ground with both early voting and independent voters is essential. As one Ciattarelli campaign volunteer pointed out bluntly, “This is not enough for Jack to win yet, but if every conservative shows up, this race becomes winnable.”
Amidst narrow margins and mounting pressure, the final days leading to the election will be crucial for Ciattarelli. Republicans face a ticking clock as they strive to modify the early voting momentum before Election Day arrives.
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