Billionaire developer John Catsimatidis didn’t hold back his frustration with New York’s current trajectory. “They’ve lost their minds in New York,” he declared after announcing plans to move his primary residence out of the city. His decision reflects a broader trend. A significant number of high-income earners are now eyeing Florida, particularly Palm Beach, as their new home amidst rising political tensions back home.
The catalyst behind this mass exodus? Zohran Mamdani, the Democratic nominee for New York City mayor, is championing an ambitious tax policy that includes a proposed 2% surtax on income exceeding $1 million. This, when combined with New York’s already high taxes, would push the top tax rate for city earners to nearly 54%. For many affluent New Yorkers, this proposed increase stirs serious concern, compelling them to take action.
The impact is palpable. Local realtors in South Florida are noticing an influx of inquiries from New Yorkers looking to relocate. “There definitely has been more traffic, more flow through here in regards to showings,” a Palm Beach real estate agent reported, pointing to a shift that extends beyond seasonal vacation homes to full-time residences. As these individuals consider their options, the exodus increasingly appears driven by Mamdani’s tax plans.
Bill Ackman, a hedge fund manager, echoed the dire sentiment surrounding Mamdani’s agenda. He cautioned that “New York City under Mamdani is about to become much more dangerous and economically unviable.” Such strong statements reflect fears that the tax changes could have disastrous effects on the city’s economic landscape.
The statistics back up these concerns. Between 2018 and 2022, over 125,000 New Yorkers relocated to Florida, taking $14 billion in adjusted gross income with them, according to the Citizens Budget Commission. This trend has only intensified during the pandemic, and with Mamdani’s proposals in the spotlight, a new wave of migration seems inevitable. Ackman likened this phenomenon to “Ken Griffin leaving Chicago for Miami on steroids,” driving home the magnitude of the financial and corporate implications.
Local Florida officials have noted the exodus as well. Boca Raton’s mayor acknowledged the reality of the “Mamdani effect,” recounting calls from New Yorkers—many of whom are business owners—seeking to relocate their operations. Across South Florida, the luxury real estate market is adapting to this new demand, with more cash offers and permanent residency inquiries pouring in. It’s become a migration fueled not just by weather, but by politics.
This reality is not just anecdotal: last year, the Wall Street Journal reported a nearly 50% surge in homes sold for over $10 million in Palm Beach and Miami-Dade counties. The traditional rhythm of return for seasonal buyers is vanishing. Instead, individuals are looking to establish Florida as their legal residence, often involving navigating the “six months and a day” rule to cut tax ties with New York.
New York Governor Kathy Hochul has voiced her concerns about the migration. “I don’t want to lose any more people to Palm Beach. We’ve lost enough,” she stated early this year. However, the policy rift continues to grow. While Hochul has rejected Mamdani’s state tax increase, the possibility of a local surtax persists if Mamdani secures a victory in the upcoming election.
Mamdani, at the age of 33, defends his tax strategy as a matter of economic justice. “This tiny share of the city population—the top 1%—takes home 35% of all income earned by New York City residents,” he argued during a campaign event. Supporters of the plan assert it solely targets high-income earners, leaving the middle class unscathed. Critics, however, highlight that such a policy could stifle productivity and undermine funding for essential services.
In response to this shifting political landscape, real estate agents across South Florida are witnessing a notable transformation in buyer behavior. Regina Sotomayor, lead broker at HOMESCENE Property Partners, reported a “generational shift,” noting that “we’re seeing seven-figure earners who never imagined leaving the city now asking: ‘Show me what Tampa Bay looks like as my primary address.’” This transition is not limited to Palm Beach; the impact is sweeping across various regions in Florida, generating expectations of record-breaking property sales through 2025.
These trends mirror Massachusetts’ Fair Share Amendment, enacted in 2023, which imposed a new tax on high-income earners. Contrary to claims that it wouldn’t spur flight, IRS data indicated a loss of affluent individuals following its implementation. New York could face an even steeper decline in high earners due to its already burdensome tax rates. The proposed surtax would push the combined top marginal rate to 16.776%, the highest in the country. Coupled with federal taxes, millionaires in New York could see more than half of their income claimed by government.
Such figures undoubtedly contribute to growing concerns among the wealthy. “These buyers aren’t speculating. They’re setting up their lives here for good,” remarked one Florida broker, capturing the seriousness of the trend.
The future remains uncertain as the financial repercussions of Mamdani’s plan unfold. While he estimates generating $4 billion annually, there’s skepticism regarding whether this revenue will remain stable as high-income New Yorkers consider relocation. A mere fraction of NYC’s 384,000 millionaires moving out could shift billions in taxable income and philanthropic efforts elsewhere.
For Florida, the influx poses both opportunities and challenges. Rising home prices and increasing competition for housing in Palm Beach are expected. Current residents are already experiencing heightened traffic and enrollment in schools. However, one trend stands out: as Mamdani gains influence, an exodus of wealth from New York is likely to continue.
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