Pennsylvania Senator John Fetterman is navigating a turbulent political landscape that has shifted dramatically since he first entered the Senate. His recent call for stronger border security has ignited a firestorm of backlash within the Democratic Party, particularly as he openly criticized its handling of immigration. “We NEED to secure our border!” he declared, admitting, “My party has done a BAD job with the border. Absolutely. Undeniable!” Fetterman’s candor and forceful delivery have struck a chord but also deepened the divisions within his party, highlighting an ongoing rift with its progressive wing.
Fetterman has historically been viewed as a populist figure, resonating with both working-class people and progressive activists. However, recent months have seen a shift in his political stance, increasingly aligning with more conservative views on key issues such as immigration and U.S.-Israel relations. This realignment is reflected in his declining approval ratings among Democratic voters, falling from 80% in January 2024 to 54% by September 2024, according to a Quinnipiac University poll. Such a dramatic drop suggests a fracture in the support he once enjoyed.
The trend continues in a separate Morning Consult poll, which shows an overall approval decline. Fetterman’s net approval plummeted from 57% to 24% over just a year. This sharply contrasts with the average 2-point decline experienced by his colleagues. James Lee from Susquehanna Polling and Research characterized Fetterman as “politically exposed,” hinting that this vulnerability could spark a serious primary challenge in 2028.
Fetterman’s pivot away from progressive ideals was strikingly visible earlier this year when he defended Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) following a violent incident at an ICE facility in Texas. Contrary to the calls for its dismantling, Fetterman affirmed that the agency performs an “important job for our country.” His comments earned him praise from former President Donald Trump during a White House meeting. “The new John Fetterman is exactly what you said—he’s right, he’s right,” Trump remarked, highlighting the surprising turn in Fetterman’s political trajectory.
This shift has not gone unnoticed by those who previously backed him. For instance, Annie Wu Henry, a former campaign staffer, criticized Fetterman on social media, drawing attention to a video from his 2022 Senate campaign. In the emotional appeal, he spoke of his wife’s journey as a formerly undocumented immigrant: “If they didn’t have the courage to take that step, I wouldn’t have the three beautiful children that I have today.” This stark contrast between his past and current positions has sparked outrage among former allies and progressive activists who perceive his transformation as a betrayal of core values.
Criticism extends beyond grassroots activists. The Philadelphia Inquirer editorial board recently questioned Fetterman’s effectiveness in a scathing June 2024 op-ed, suggesting he either needs to serve his constituents effectively or step away from his position altogether. The piece highlighted concerns about his attendance and engagement in Senate voting, alongside lingering health issues following his stroke in 2022 and treatment for clinical depression in 2023.
Columbia University political science professor Robert Y. Shapiro described Fetterman as “a very idiosyncratic political figure,” noting his tendency to reject party norms. He cautioned that Fetterman’s decline in approval looms as a significant risk for his re-election. “He’s at odds with some Democratic leaders and especially the further liberal wing of the party,” Shapiro remarked, emphasizing the mounting pressures Fetterman faces.
As the political climate in Pennsylvania grows increasingly competitive, Fetterman appears at a crossroads. Once considered a vital swing state, Pennsylvania now harbors a volatile mix of emerging populist sentiments across party lines. Fetterman’s brand, which previously balanced working-class authenticity with progressive values, faces challenges from both disillusioned progressives and cautious moderates.
Support for Israel has become another contentious issue, with Fetterman’s vocal stance attracting ire from the left while earning nods of approval from the conservative bloc. His alignment with traditional support for Israel stands in stark contrast to the growing criticism from the progressive faction of the Democratic Party, particularly amidst the ongoing Gaza conflict. This divergence underscores the precarious nature of Fetterman’s current position, further alienating him from his political base.
This complex web of criticism from both the left and some tacit approval from the right illustrates the shifting dynamics of Fetterman’s political identity. His messaging, once catered to a coalition of working-class voters, now seems to resonate more with centrists and conservatives. Yet, this adjustment has offered limited protection against the erosion of his support among Democrats. A mid-2025 Susquehanna Polling and Research survey noted that despite a slight recovery in his numbers, Fetterman remained underwater with a 41% approval rate versus 37% disapproval, indicating widespread doubt about his choices.
“The Fetterman phenomenon shows what happens when a populist candidate shifts rightward in a party moving left,” noted James Lee. “His brand is plainspoken, but his policies are splitting his coalition.” This encapsulates the crux of Fetterman’s current struggle—a battle to retain authenticity while navigating the ideological divisions within his party.
As the 2028 Senate cycle approaches, Fetterman’s fractures have already caught the attention of potential challengers. Discussions of progressive candidates considering a run are arising amid his faltering poll numbers and rising frustration within grassroots circles. No formal announcements have yet emerged, but insiders anticipate a meaningful challenge could likely materialize.
A Democratic organizer involved in statewide races provided a stark assessment: “He’s saying things that sound like a Republican. He can’t win a Senate primary like that in this state.” This sentiment amplifies the urgency Fetterman faces in reconciling his new positions with the reality of primary politics.
Nevertheless, Fetterman’s journey is not devoid of silver linings. He has gained modest traction among some Republican voters, particularly those in favor of robust border controls and unyielding support for Israel. While this crossover appeal might provide some escape routes in general elections, it presents a precarious balancing act for Fetterman, especially if he can survive a looming Democratic primary.
The gravity of Fetterman’s recent declarations cannot be overlooked. His assertive demand for border security has garnered national attention, signaling both a moral stance and a break from traditional Democratic immigration policy. However, whether this represents a bold political maneuver or a strategic misstep remains an open question.
Ultimately, Fetterman’s evolving positions reveal a complicated new identity, though one fraught with risks. His divergence from party norms, especially on critical issues like immigration and foreign policy, may give him a distinct profile. But in a state like Pennsylvania, fraught with political competition, every percentage point of support is critical for survival.
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