The final poll before Election Day in New York City shows a surprising tightening in the race for mayor. Former Governor Andrew Cuomo has gained momentum, reducing the lead of Democratic Socialist candidate Zohran Mamdani. According to AtlasIntel polling released on November 3, 2025, Mamdani stands at 43.9%, with Cuomo close behind at 39.4%. Republican Curtis Sliwa trails at 15.9%. This shift signals rising concerns among voters about the city’s political future.
Cuomo’s late surge is stark. He’s gained 5.4 percentage points since October 30, while Mamdani’s support has only increased by 3.3. The drop in Sliwa’s numbers, which fell by 8.6 points during this period, indicates a consolidation of support around Cuomo as voters seek to block a potential Mamdani victory. “Mamdani leads with 43.9% of the vote… while Cuomo trails close behind at 39.4%,” stated AtlasIntel, highlighting the narrowing gap to just 4.5 points.
A Sudden Shift in Voter Mood
This last-minute shift reflects a growing unease among the electorate. Concerns about Mamdani’s socialist policies appear to be escalating, especially among older, wealthier New Yorkers and residents in certain boroughs like Staten Island. A recent survey revealed that about 765,000 adults in the city, roughly 9%, would “definitely” leave if Mamdani were elected. Pollster James Johnson cautioned, “If anywhere near that number actually left, the economic impact would be seismic.” The implications of this potential exodus could severely undermine the city’s economic recovery.
Feedback from respondents indicates deep dissatisfaction with Mamdani’s proposals, with some characterizing his vision as a “disaster” or “a ‘sh–hole’” scenario for New York. Johnson pointed out that these sentiments are particularly prevalent among older populations and significant voter blocs, such as Staten Islanders and white voters.
Trump’s Warning, Sliwa’s Fade
Concern regarding Mamdani intensified after comments from former President Donald Trump on CBS’s “60 Minutes.” Trump remarked, “I’m not a fan of Cuomo… but if it’s going to be between a bad Democrat and a communist, I’m going to pick the bad Democrat all the time.” This statement seems to have contributed to a drop in Sliwa’s support, which fell from as high as 24% in earlier surveys to 15.9%—an indication that some of his former supporters may be reconsidering their options.
Election Day Uncertainty
On the eve of the election, the final Quinnipiac University poll showed Mamdani holding a 10-point lead. Nonetheless, this figure may exaggerate his strength due to an increase in undecided voters. Mary Snow from Quinnipiac noted that “the percentage of likely voters not weighing in has increased slightly,” suggesting that late deciders could shift the outcome.
Voter turnout will be crucial. By Sunday night, nearly 735,317 early ballots had already been cast, with the total anticipated to reach around 1.9 million. If late-deciding voters lean toward Cuomo or if mobilization efforts make headway in swing boroughs like Queens and the Bronx, even a close outcome remains feasible.
Furthermore, discrepancies in polling data create further confusion. AtlasIntel’s sample was just 59% Democrat-affiliated, compared to the 73% of registered Democrats in early voting records, suggesting Cuomo may be appealing to crossover voters or that traditional party affiliations are shifting.
Hypotheticals and Real Risks
AtlasIntel’s hypothetical scenarios indicate that in a direct matchup, Cuomo would secure 49.7% to Mamdani’s 44.1%. This potential swing of over five points illustrates Cuomo’s growing traction among moderate and conservative Democrats and underscores the risks posed by Sliwa’s candidacy to the anti-Mamdani coalition.
This may explain the urgency behind social media appeals for tactical voting, urging supporters to “NYC, SAVE YOURSELF!” to galvanize action against a Mamdani-led administration.
What Could Happen Next
If Mamdani manages to win narrowly, the city could experience significant political upheaval. His leadership could solidify a leftward shift in local governance, which might prompt capital flight, diminished tax revenue, and population decline, as highlighted by survey findings.
Conversely, should Cuomo gain influence and ultimately win, it would mark a remarkable comeback for the former governor. Such a victory could recalibrate the political landscape that has leaned heavily left in recent cycles.
As the clock ticks down to Election Day, both outcomes remain plausible, leaving the city’s fate in the balance.
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