The recent survey by JL Partners uncovers a striking sentiment among New Yorkers regarding the potential elevation of Zohran Mamdani to the mayor’s office. Nearly 800,000 residents express plans to leave the city under his leadership. The poll indicates that 9% are ready to depart, while an additional 25% are considering it. This level of discontent raises significant questions about Mamdani’s economic platform and the future stability of New York City.
Mamdani, a Democratic Socialist from Queens, has made waves with his proposals for steep tax increases and aggressive reforms. He has dismissed concerns regarding his potential impact on the city’s population. “What I’ve proposed is that we raise $10 billion to pay for our entire economic agenda,” he stated, outlining plans that include raising the corporate tax rate significantly. The notion of taxing out-of-state businesses operating in New York also appears in his agenda, aiming to foster a more equitable economic landscape. However, the survey suggests that these policies could be a double-edged sword.
The JL Partners poll, conducted among 1,000 adult residents, reveals a troubling divide among demographics. More men and white respondents expressed intentions to leave than other demographic groups. In Staten Island, 21% of those surveyed are firmly resolved to move out if Mamdani takes office. These figures highlight a potential trend of discontent among groups that historically contribute significantly to local economic vitality.
Critics of the poll argue that the sample size is relatively small, with only 90 individuals selecting the “definitely leave” option. Nevertheless, experts warn that the consequences could erupt even if a small fraction follows through with these plans. New York has experienced population declines before, particularly during the pandemic, when it lost over 300,000 residents. A tax-heavy policy approach could replicate or worsen such trends in a city that has only recently begun to rebound economically.
Business leaders are understandably on edge. The prospect of higher taxes, especially on corporations, could compel companies to reassess their presence in the city. One executive expressed this sentiment candidly, suggesting that unless incentives balance out the penalties of doing business in New York, companies may look elsewhere. This raises the stakes not just for Mamdani’s supporters, but for the entire economic framework of the city.
Mamdani’s platform extends beyond corporate taxes, encompassing commitments to affordable housing and job creation in the environmental sector. While these initiatives attract progressive activists, the survey results indicate that such radical policy changes do not command unanimous support among New Yorkers. A sizable percentage—34% of respondents—would reconsider their commitment to the city if Mamdani enacts his economic agenda.
Responses from the survey illustrate a longing for economic freedom, prompting mentions of states like Florida and South Carolina as alternatives. As one Staten Island resident remarked, leaving due to higher costs under Mamdani’s rule seems more appealing given neighboring states’ enticing tax structures. This desire for financial relief underscores a delicate balance that a prospective mayor must navigate between progressive ideals and economic reality.
Mamdani’s indifference toward the fears of migration could lead to a fundamental shift in New York’s economic strategy. Historically, the city has worked to maintain both social services and a competitive tax environment to attract and retain taxpayers and corporations. Moving away from this balance could lead to strained relations with current residents and potential investors alike.
For context, the U.S. Census Bureau reported a notable population increase in New York City over the past decade, driven by a strong economic environment buoyed by the financial sector and tech investments. Analysts warn that under Mamdani’s governance, there may be a significant reversal, impacting growth outcomes and the long-term viability of industries crucial to the city’s prosperity.
The sentiment captured in the JL Partners survey does not merely reflect numbers; it symbolizes anxiety about the city’s future. The consequences of Mamdani winning and implementing his policies could be transformative—not just for the economy but for residents who might choose to take their contributions elsewhere.
While Mamdani’s supporters acknowledge the potential fallout from his proposed changes, the overwhelming question remains: how many residents, businesses, and tax revenues could diminish as individuals weigh their options? As long as nearly 800,000 residents signal their intent to exit, the implications for New York City’s infrastructure and services could be profound, marking a pivotal moment in its history.
"*" indicates required fields
