President Trump’s approach to rare earth diplomacy is a calculated move that stands to reshape the United States’ influence in Asia. By forging partnerships with Myanmar’s pro-democracy forces, Trump aims to diminish China’s tight grip on critical mineral resources while bolstering U.S. interests. His strategy seeks to address the significant imbalance created by China’s dominance, which controls about 90% of the global processing capacity for rare earth minerals.
The agreements struck in 2025 with countries like Australia, Japan, Malaysia, and Thailand reflect a broader strategy. These multibillion-dollar deals not only target the exploration and refining of critical minerals but also aim to safeguard U.S. industries against potential export restrictions from foreign partners. This integrates trade and security with industrial policy, essential for reducing dependency on China and enhancing U.S. standing in the Indo-Pacific.
In essence, Trump’s foreign policy model ties American security guarantees to long-term economic partnerships. The recent U.S.–Ukraine Rare Earth and Resource Agreement exemplifies this concept. The deal established a joint investment fund that grants the U.S. preferential rights to Ukraine’s resources, such as rare earths, gold, and energy, in exchange for ongoing defense and support. Considering Ukraine possesses around 5% of the world’s rare earth reserves, this partnership ensures that valuable resources remain under Western influence rather than falling into Chinese hands.
Beyond Ukraine, Trump’s model could offer a pathway to stability in Myanmar. The country has endured a protracted civil conflict that intensified following the military coup in 2021. Engaging directly with the Kachin Independence Army (KIA)—which controls the majority of rare-earth mines—could disrupt the junta’s finances by redirecting resource revenues to pro-democracy forces. This strategy would simultaneously limit China’s economic leverage in the region and provide essential support to those resisting military rule.
Myanmar ranks as the world’s fourth-largest producer of rare earth minerals and accounts for roughly 9% of global output. Most of its deposits, particularly those rich in heavy rare earths, are located in Kachin and Shan States. The significance of these resources is underscored by China’s reliance, which imports about 70% of its medium- to heavy-rare-earth feedstock from Myanmar. The conflict dynamics reflect this dependence, as demonstrated by the surge in dysprosium prices following the KIA’s control over key mining centers.
China’s response to the evolving situation has involved leveraging its influence to broker ceasefires among various armed groups to stabilize its economic interests. Recent agreements, such as those with the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), illustrate China’s readiness to manipulate conditions to maintain its resource corridors and trade routes. Furthermore, Beijing’s pressure on these groups to halt armament support for pro-democracy forces signals a decisive shift toward enhanced support for the junta.
The implications of these developments are significant. If the United States can establish a robust partnership with the KIA, it would not only provide a potential pathway to ending the civil war but also substantially undermine the junta’s control. This strategy could hinder China’s access to critical rare earths and change the landscape of power in the region.
By tackling these complex issues without deploying U.S. troops or expending vast financial resources, President Trump’s rare earth diplomacy may offer a pragmatic solution for stabilizing Myanmar while simultaneously safeguarding American national interests. The potential for a democratic Burma aligned with Western markets represents a formidable challenge to China’s ambitions in Southeast Asia and could redefine alliances in the region.
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