Florida Governor Ron DeSantis recently sparked conversation with his comments about a potential “tariff” on newcomers from high-tax states like New York. Though it may have been delivered with a dose of humor, the idea raises important questions about how to manage the state’s rapid population growth driven by out-of-state migration.
According to a political observer on social media, DeSantis asked a state representative if they had introduced legislation for this proposed “tariff.” His phrasing may have been light, but it reflects the challenges that accompany Florida’s surging in-migration. DeSantis has long pointed out the differences between Florida and Democrat-led states, often quipping, “All I have to do is watch what California, Illinois, and New York do, and then do precisely the opposite.”
Since the pandemic began, Florida has witnessed an influx of new residents. U.S. Census Bureau data shows that over 318,000 people migrated to Florida from July 2021 to July 2022, while New York experienced a loss of more than 180,000 residents. This trend continues into 2023 and 2024, with projections indicating that Florida’s economic output will grow faster than the national average through 2027. Yet, such growth is not without its complications. Increased housing prices, rising insurance premiums, and strained infrastructure are significant issues stemming from this population surge.
Concerns about affordability are widespread among Floridians. A 2023 survey from Florida Atlantic University found that 80% of residents were worried about housing costs, while 90% expressed anxiety over inflation. More troubling is that nearly half considered leaving Florida due to the high cost of living. Monica Escaleras, director of BEPI, expressed that “financial security feels one expense away from collapse” for many residents.
The insurance crisis compounds these worries. With numerous insurers pulling out or opting not to renew policies, many homeowners find themselves forced into the state-run Citizens Property Insurance Corporation. Home insurance premiums in Florida have skyrocketed, averaging over $4,200 annually—three times the national average. One former resident, Linda C., articulated her frustration, stating, “I got tired of my homeowner’s insurance not being renewed and being moved to Citizens. The price increases every year.” Ironically, while many New Yorkers flee high taxes and crime, longtime Floridians like Linda are leaving due to rising costs exacerbated by new arrivals.
DeSantis views Florida’s migration as a testament to effective governance. He asserts that the state spends less now than in previous years, with a smaller government footprint than New York. Yet, these claims clash with the real-world implications of rapid population growth. More residents lead to crowded schools and congested roads, and while newcomers may afford higher rents, long-time workers find themselves squeezed with stagnant wages.
Data supports this unease. From 2020 to 2022, many Florida counties saw home prices elevate by over 40%. Although there has been a slight plateau or drop since then, affordability remains a concern. Areas like Miami-Dade and Palm Beach are now more expensive than many northeastern metros. Alarmingly, 72% of Floridians aged 18 to 24 reported considering leaving due to financial pressures, in stark contrast to just 27% of those 65 and older. This generational divide reveals a potential threat to Florida’s demographic balance.
As DeSantis raised the idea of openly discriminating against New Yorkers, the economic implications come into focus. Questions about managing the cost pressures arising from this migration are valid. Unsustainable growth threatens to burden public systems, even as DeSantis promotes Florida’s low-tax, pro-business stance. The influx of wealthy newcomers drives up real estate values, complicating the landscape for native residents striving to make ends meet.
Some states attempt to address these challenges through various measures, including residency requirements or taxes on investment properties. In contrast, others have witnessed their local populations dwindle as costs skyrocket. While a “tariff” may not be feasible or constitutional, the mere mention of it hints at increasing awareness of affordability issues in Florida.
DeSantis’s quip that he might need to visit New York to chat with “future Floridians” underscores a dilemma. If Florida’s newcomers continue to outbid the locals, serious questions will need to be addressed about how to balance growth with affordability for long-term residents. The conversation surrounding a “tariff” might only be the beginning of a broader discussion on managing the Sunshine State’s economic landscape as it evolves.
"*" indicates required fields
