The prolonged government shutdown has illuminated internal rifts within the Republican Party. With pressures escalating, a critical question has emerged: should they dismantle the Senate filibuster to break the current stalemate? This debate was reignited after former President Donald Trump urged GOP lawmakers in a late-night post to “INITIATE THE ‘NUCLEAR OPTION,’ GET RID OF THE FILIBUSTER AND MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!”
The shutdown, rooted in a deadlock over federal spending and health care policies, has set the stage for this debate. Democrats are advocating for the continuation and expansion of Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies, while many Republicans oppose these demands, viewing them as fiscally irresponsible. The insistence on the 60-vote threshold—protected by the filibuster—has left both parties struggling to chart a path forward.
A tweet that gained traction among conservatives encapsulates the urgency of the situation: “Republicans, you won’t win without nuking the filibuster. It’s simple. We nuke it, and win, or they nuke it, and we lose. Pick.” This statement highlights the strategic dilemma facing the GOP.
Many Senate Republicans, however, are wary of eliminating the filibuster, fearing it could lead to significant liberal reforms in the future. Senator John Thune characterized the filibuster as a “bulwark against a lot of really bad things happening to the country.” Others, like Senator John Barrasso, warned that removing the filibuster could enable Democrats to push through drastic changes, such as statehood for Puerto Rico and D.C., or court packing.
The recent electoral losses for Republicans have intensified this internal debate. The off-year elections on November 7 showed Democrats winning gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey by significant margins—15 and 13 points, respectively. Furthermore, a ballot initiative aimed at expanding Medicaid in California received overwhelming support at 64%, signaling that voters favor health care initiatives that Republicans have opposed.
Such setbacks have ignited anxiety within Republican ranks. During a Senate GOP breakfast, Trump underscored the political ramifications of the shutdown, stating it was “a big factor, negative for the Republicans.” Senator Lisa Murkowski also acknowledged that the public perceives the shutdown as a failure directly tied to the party in power.
For Democrats, the turmoil in the GOP presents a significant opportunity. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer echoed Trump’s sentiments, reinforcing the idea that the shutdown is detrimental for Republicans. Capitalizing on the moment, progressive senators like Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren are demanding binding action on ACA subsidies before the government reopens. As Warren firmly stated, “We don’t need a show vote. We need access to health care for millions of Americans who are about to lose it.”
The lack of a unified Republican response has become increasingly frustrating for many party members. Representative Kevin Cramer remarked that Trump’s call to end the filibuster “would have been very helpful” if made earlier. Meanwhile, Speaker of the House Mike Johnson argued that abolishing procedural hurdles risks steering the party toward communism.
Ordinary Americans are experiencing the far-reaching impacts of the shutdown. Millions have lost federal food aid, federal employees are working without pay, and rising insurance premiums threaten to disrupt health care access. Analysts are warning of escalating consequences, with Devin O’Connor from the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities cautioning, “When you shut down the government, bad things happen, and the longer the government is shut down, the more bad things will happen.”
Polling suggests growing public discontent with the situation. A Washington Post-ABC News poll found that 45% of respondents blame the Republicans for the shutdown, while only 33% blame Democrats. This perception—that the GOP has the power to end the shutdown but refuses to do so—is taking root among voters.
This brings the debate back to Trump’s call for ending the filibuster. Such a move could allow Republicans to bypass Democratic opposition and pass legislation with a simple majority. Yet, this strategy carries risks, as it would also empower Democrats to govern without constraints if they regain control. For the moment, GOP leaders seem to believe that caution is the wiser choice.
Nonetheless, the pressure is building. The call to eliminate the filibuster is gaining traction, no longer viewed merely as a fringe idea. It’s being discussed increasingly among former presidents, active lawmakers, and influential conservative figures. Advocates argue that the stakes are high and demand action. As suggested in that viral tweet, “It’s simple; we nuke it, and win, or they nuke it, and we lose.”
Currently, negotiations appear stalled. While centrist Democrats seek minor compromises, such as temporary extensions of subsidies, these discussions have reached a deadlock. Progressive Democrats remain firm in their stance. Sanders encapsulated public sentiment when he asserted, “All over this country, people are saying, ‘Please, Democrats, you haven’t been strong in the past. Stand tall now.’”
As the Senate remains entrenched in this stalemate, two clocks are ticking: political frustration among the public and the financial expiration of critical subsidies. Republicans face a pivotal decision: is preserving tradition worth the political fallout and the real-world ramifications that follow?
Trump’s candid approach may alienate some in the GOP establishment, but it resonates with many rank-and-file conservatives who perceive the shutdown as a crisis that could have been avoided. Ultimately, the fight over the filibuster is no longer a theoretical discussion—it stands as a critical test of whether the Republican Party is ready to utilize its full power or risk losing it altogether.
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