Rep. Byron Donalds did not hold back his assessment of California Governor Gavin Newsom’s prospects for a presidential run in 2028. His blunt statement, “Gavin can run if he wants to. He’s the WORST governor in America. Everybody knows this,” conveys a clear sentiment: skepticism. This sentiment resonates widely, particularly among conservatives and centrists, who doubt Newsom can win over a national audience, especially in Middle America.
Newsom’s potential candidacy stirs mixed reactions even within his party. While he enjoys backing from some affluent donors and liberal groups in California and Hollywood, many voters criticize his record on critical issues like crime, homelessness, and the skyrocketing cost of living. The contrast between his policies and the pressing realities faced by Californians becomes evident as discontent grows.
At AmericaFest in Phoenix, sentiments echoed Donalds’ remarks. Interviews there revealed a shared concern among attendees about Newsom’s national appeal. Many conservatives are gravitating towards potential candidates such as Vice President JD Vance and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro. Shapiro, in particular, has risen as a viable Democratic alternative, showcasing executive experience that some believe could address the concerns of moderate voters. “I live in the real world in Pennsylvania where we have to balance budgets,” he recently remarked, highlighting a practical approach that resonates with those feeling abandoned by progressive policies rolling out of California.
Attendees at AmericaFest expressed a desire for leaders with relatable, solid backgrounds. One Wisconsin voter stated, “I want someone with their feet on the ground. Someone tough—like Vance, maybe even Rubio. Not more of what California’s selling.” This sentiment underscores the prevailing notion that Newsom’s progressive agenda may not align with the values and needs of much of the country.
Statistics supporting this perspective show troubling signs for Newsom. California has experienced notable population decline, with more than half a million residents leaving between April 2020 and July 2022, driven largely by concerns over high living costs and safety. The Public Policy Institute of California highlights that 68% of residents believe homelessness is a major issue, indicating a significant rise in public concern over just five years.
Supporters of Newsom point to his advancements in progressive causes like climate change and reproductive rights as positive contributions. However, critics counter that such achievements have created a significant disconnect between ideals and reality. As one San Diego voter remarked, “People are worried about their jobs and whether they’ll be able to afford groceries. Not state-funded abortion tourism.” This illustrates the growing frustration among everyday citizens who feel their priorities are overlooked.
Despite the challenges, Newsom is laying the groundwork for a presidential bid, capitalizing on support from major Hollywood figures and launching a podcast to increase his visibility. James Costos, a former ambassador and HBO executive, stated, “Enthusiasm by L.A. donors is very strong and very encouraging. Big checks are being written.” Yet, the backing of coastal elites may lack the broad support necessary for a successful national campaign.
Byron Donalds’ remarks highlight how ingrained perceptions shape the narrative around Newsom. The question remains: can he transcend the negative associations tied to his policies, particularly in crucial battleground states? Public sentiment towards his handling of issues like immigration and pandemic restrictions lingers, with memories of California’s lengthy school shutdowns and strict lockdowns still fresh for many voters.
Even experts within the Democratic Party express hesitation. Democratic strategist Matthew Littman pointed out that enthusiasm for Newsom’s campaign is subdued. “People are waiting on this thing. I don’t think they’re going to immediately jump on any campaign,” he said, signaling uncertainty around Newsom’s viability as a candidate in the minds of key players.
As the political landscape continues to evolve, JD Vance appears to be gaining momentum as the favored Republican candidate among many. Vance embodies the ideals of Trump’s political movement, resonating with voters who feel a connection to his message. “He’s from the team that Trump built,” one California voter explained, suggesting that Vance could effectively channel Middle America’s aspirations.
Even among Democratic progressives, doubts persist regarding Newsom’s appeal. One attendee from San Diego articulated a common concern: “He’s good on TV, but when you actually look at what’s happening in California, it’s hard to argue he’s got what it takes. If he’s the nominee, Republicans will win again.” This skepticism marks a pivotal moment for the Democratic brand, as it seeks to navigate an increasingly challenging political terrain.
As the 2028 election looms, the early dynamics are forming. One faction is mobilizing behind a new wave of conservative leaders with strong grassroots support. Meanwhile, Newsom and other Democrats grapple with internal divisions, pitting flashy coastal initiatives against the realities faced by middle-class constituents. The contrast in approaches may ultimately determine the success or failure of a potential Newsom candidacy, with Donalds’ prediction hanging in the air: “He’ll get shellacked.”
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