The race for the 2028 GOP nomination is shaping up, and current trends suggest that Vice President JD Vance holds a remarkable lead that rivals any past candidate. According to CNN data analyst Harry Enten, Vance’s support is unprecedented at this stage of the race. His recent victories in various polls, along with a significant win at a Turning Point USA event, have established him as the frontrunner among Republican candidates.
Enten’s analysis indicates that Vance’s position is not just a fleeting moment; it’s a historical anomaly. “There isn’t any poll showing a candidate this far ahead so early,” Enten noted during a segment on CNN, highlighting Vance’s dominance in the New Hampshire GOP presidential primary. He stated, “JD Vance is running well ahead of the field,” and backed it up with raw numbers: Vance holds a 48% chance of securing the nomination, while Marco Rubio sits far behind at just 12%.
This gap is striking. Enten compared Vance to racing legend Mario Andretti, saying, “JD Vance is like Mario Andretti, and Marco Rubio and the rest of the field, they’re like going around in go-karts.” Such imagery illustrates not just Vance’s lead, but the stark difference in momentum between him and his competition. The message is clear: Vance is taking the initiative, leaving others in the dust.
Going further, Enten expressed astonishment at Vance’s early performance. “I can’t recall anyone being this far ahead at this early stage in New Hampshire,” he said. This insight nods to the rarity of such a strong lead for a non-sitting president, making Vance’s position even more noteworthy. Historically, it’s unheard of for a candidate not currently holding office to exceed 50% in early polls.
While many factors could reshape the political landscape between now and Election Day, Vance currently enjoys a substantial advantage. His ability to attract support among conservatives during Trump’s second term and his successful straw poll results indicate he has established a formidable base. If he chooses to run, Vance appears poised to sweep the GOP primary. With data analysts like Harry Enten recognizing his potential, Vance’s early lead is generating both excitement and speculation about the future dynamics of the Republican primary.
As the campaign trail begins to heat up, all eyes will remain on JD Vance to see if he can maintain this momentum moving forward. The current polling reflects not just individual preferences but also a broader sentiment among the GOP electorate, positioning him as a key player for 2028.
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