The latest economic data reveals a striking contrast to the gloomy predictions made by leading economists over the past year. Donald Trump has proven once again that the doomsayers rushed to wrong conclusions. Their expectation of high inflation and stagnant growth has been soundly defeated, leading to a robust GDP growth rate of 4.3% in the third quarter, following an impressive 3.5% in the second quarter. This performance has astonished approximately 90% of professional economists who misjudged these developments.
The incessant negativity toward Trump’s policies has skewed their projections. They anticipated inflation to persist above 3% into 2025, yet it is now likely to drop closer to 2.7%, edging toward the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%. This demonstrates a significant oversight by experts who failed to grasp the resilience and momentum of the Trump economy.
Interestingly, this isn’t an isolated incident. Historically, these economists predicted disasters at the beginning of Trump’s presidency, including a stock market crash. Contrary to their forecasts, all three major stock indices are now at record highs. One prominent economist, Paul Krugman, who has received accolades for his contributions in the field, was particularly vocal in warning against Trump’s policies, fearing they would lead to a second Great Depression.
The economists’ forecasts have not only been overly pessimistic but also misguided in their analysis of Trump’s tariffs. While there was indeed a rise in the prices of aluminum, coffee, and beef due to tariffs reaching as high as 50%, these experts neglected to factor in the counterbalancing effects of Trump’s pro-growth strategies. These strategies, which include deregulation, tax cuts, and energy independence, have been pivotal in driving overall economic stability and growth.
Surprisingly, instead of learning from their mistakes, the academic and media circles seem to double down on them. The latest predictions for economic growth in 2026 hover at a dismal 1.9%, ignoring the recent trends showing growth running at nearly twice that rate. This raises a pressing question: Why do these economists remain entrenched in their flawed views?
The term “Trump Derangement Syndrome” comes to mind when reflecting on their inability to adjust their models or beliefs in the face of changing realities. Renowned economist John Maynard Keynes once asserted that if the facts change, one should change their mind. Yet, the so-called blue-chip economists appear stuck in their ways.
This stubbornness is not just a failure of intellect; it is a disservice to the economics profession. Their predictions of doom have tarnished their credibility and reinforced a perception of economics as “the dismal science.” Rather than offering insightful analyses that adapt to current conditions, they continue to propagate a viewpoint shaped by bias and resistance to acknowledge the realities of the economic resurgence under Trump’s leadership. The refusal to recalibrate their positions suggests a deep-seated unwillingness to confront the implications of their own assessments—an ongoing saga in the realm of economic forecasting.
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