President Joe Biden is now adding a brand spanking new problem to his rather lengthy list, thanks for the most part to his obvious signs of cognitive decline and poor performance. That problem?
His support in the very deep blue state of New York is slipping in a big, big way. In fact, some are even going so far as to refer to New York as a battleground state. It’s almost unfathomable to think that it could flip red in the election this November, but, given how things have gone for Biden’s reelection campaign thus far, there’s an actual possibility it could happen.
Politico has more details on this developing story:
Elected officials, union leaders and political consultants are panicking over polls showing a steady erosion of Biden’s support in a state he won by 23 points four years ago. They’re so worried they’ve been trying to convince the Biden team to pour resources into New York to shore up his campaign and boost Democrats running in a half-dozen swing districts that could determine control of the House.
Biden aides have not focused on New York, committing no significant resources to a state where they expect the president to easily win all 28 electoral college votes in November.
But the warning signs are impossible to ignore and have been building over the past year. Two private polls conducted in a swing New York House district and reviewed by POLITICO — one in September and another in March — found former President Donald Trump leading Biden there by 1 point, a virtual tie. And public polls over the last four months found Biden’s lead had winnowed to just 8 points across New York — an unusually narrow gap in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans 2 to 1.
“We’re still acting like this is a one-party state, which for pretty much 20, 25 years it has been,” Democratic Manhattan Borough President Mark Levine went on to say about the shifting politics in his state. “I truly believe we’re a battleground state now.”
What’s causing this massive shift?
The poor performance the president gave during the presidential debate on June 27 has raised a whole lot of concern as to whether or not Biden is fit to discharge the duties of the office he occupies. Democrats feel that with his bad approval ratings and the debate performance which makes his cognitive decline nigh unto impossible deny, the president has very little chance of defeating former President Donald Trump.
Biden hasn’t been spending a lot of time on New York, likely still being of the belief that it’s a deep blue state thus campaigning there is a waste of time. Of course, when it comes to high-dollar fundraisers, he’s not missed them for the world. In fact, the last time the president was in New York he was in the Hamptons to raise money and to attend a dedication ceremony for the Stonewall Inn Visitor Center earlier in the day in Manhattan.
Most of his time has been spent making appearances in traditional battleground states like Pennsylvania or Wisconsin.
A contested race in New York exacerbates Biden’s reelection troubles as members of his party continue to call for him to step aside or question his fitness for office — including three members of the state’s House delegation. And it would cost him time and money he’d rather be spending on the country’s six swing states, siphoning millions of dollars to play in the costliest media market in the country.
“The money that needs to be spent here will be subtracted from other areas he’s going to lose,” former Democratic New York Gov. David Paterson remarked.
Top statewide Democrats — including Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries — have signaled shared public support for Biden. Schumer, though, has been sparing in his public comments about Biden since the president’s debate performance nearly two weeks ago.
Schumer made it clear he’s sticking with Biden while holding a press conference on Tuesday of this week.
Democrats have been on a winning streak in New York since 2006 and control all levers of power in Albany. A GOP presidential candidate hasn’t won New York since Ronald Reagan’s rout of Walter Mondale in 1984. But GOP candidates flipped enough suburban House seats to help their party maintain control of the chamber two years ago, as a Republican challenger to Gov. Kathy Hochul lost by a relatively modest 6 points.
Another reason so many people are worried about Biden being so weak in the race is because it will have a negative impact down the ballot.
A weak Biden would spell trouble for down-ballot Democrats running in battleground House districts in the Hudson Valley and on Long Island — particularly those who rely on increased turnout generated during a presidential election year.
There are huge implications for which party could end up with control over Congress. In fact, things are becoming so wild at the moment a number of Democrats are actually telling party candidates to distance themselves as much as possible from Biden without going the full monty and actually publicly disavowing him.
“It’s never been more important for a Democratic House member to focus on building their own local brand and to run on that,” an anonymous high-level Democratic Party person said. “Biden isn’t going to be handing out coattails no matter what. He’s only got anchors.”
This is not a guarantee that Trump is going to flip New York. However, even a discussion about the possibility of that happening is mind-blowing when you look at how Democrats have ruled over state for two-and-a-half decades.
Biden, along with the rest of the Democratic Party, are in a really, really bad position.
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