Vice President Kamala Harris, who is also the Democratic Party presidential nominee, got some bad news from left-leaning Nate Silver, a pollster who has a knack for being accurate in his prediction of election winners. According to Silver’s latest models, former President Donald Trump now has a commanding lead over the vice president in the race to be the 47th president. If you listen carefully, you can hear the sound of cackle-like sobs ringing through the air.
“As of early September, Trump boasts a 60.1% chance of winning the Electoral College, a dramatic increase from just a few weeks prior. Back in late August, Silver’s model gave Harris a slight edge at 53.5%, while Trump trailed at 46.1%. However, recent polling has shifted dramatically, and Trump now holds a 61.5% chance of victory in Silver’s model, leaving Harris with only a 38.3% shot,” Trending Politics News said in their latest report.
#Latest @NateSilver538 forecast (chance of winning)
August 23
🟦 Harris: 53.5%
🟥 Trump: 46.1%September 6
🟥 Trump: 61.5%
🟦 Harris: 38.3%
——
Swing States: chance of winningPennsylvania – 🔴 Trump 62-38%
Michigan – 🔴 Trump 52-48%
Wisconsin – 🔴 Trump 52-48%
Arizona – 🔴… pic.twitter.com/2JqxjoAr5O— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 6, 2024
“The forecast also highlighted Trump’s dominance in several key swing states that will likely determine the outcome of the election. According to Silver’s data, Trump has a significant advantage in states like Pennsylvania, where he leads Harris 62-38%, and Michigan and Wisconsin, both showing a 52-48% edge for Trump,” the article went on to state.
The former president is even getting a boost in left-leaning states like Nevada and Arizona, where he’s in the lead 59-41 percent and 75-25 percent. The surge Trump is seeing in swing states like Georgia (67-33 percent) and North Carolina (74-26 percent) is demonstrating a steady growth in momentum where Harris is beginning to experience difficulties making connections with voters. All of that initial excitement about her candidacy is going the way of the dinosaur. Now she needs to get folks fired up for her campaign through policies that will provide solutions to the issues Americans care about the most.
Which she doesn’t have.
#Latest @NateSilver538 forecast (chance of winning)
August 23
🟦 Harris: 53.5%
🟥 Trump: 46.1%September 6
🟥 Trump: 61.5%
🟦 Harris: 38.3%
——
Swing States: chance of winningPennsylvania – 🔴 Trump 62-38%
Michigan – 🔴 Trump 52-48%
Wisconsin – 🔴 Trump 52-48%
Arizona – 🔴… pic.twitter.com/2JqxjoAr5O— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 6, 2024
Adding to Harris’ woes, betting markets like Polymarket show similar trends. On Polymarket, Trump’s odds of winning the presidency stand at 53%, while Harris trails at 45%. The data indicates that Trump’s resurgence is being felt not only in traditional polling but across predictive markets. The projections are a blow to the Harris campaign, which is already grappling with low favorability ratings and concerns over her ability to lead the Democrat Party following Joe Biden’s exit from the race. With swing states increasingly leaning toward Trump, Harris faces an uphill battle to shift the momentum in her favor. With the first presidential debate scheduled in just four days in Philadelphia, both Trump and Harris are making strategic moves in key battleground states. On Friday, Trump is set to address the nation’s largest police union in North Carolina, showcasing his commitment to law enforcement as a cornerstone of his campaign. Meanwhile, Harris is in Pittsburgh, fine-tuning her strategy and preparations for the upcoming debate.
Both major party nominees have presented the American public with their economic plans in an attempt to draw in voters for their vision for the country’s future. Making the race a bit closer is the fundraising haul of $361 million in August for Harris. But, as it stands right now, the data seemingly indicates Trump will likely pull out a victory over the vice president if things continue on their current trajectory.
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