A new poll has been produced by the University of Mary Washington’s Center for Leadership and Media Studies — good grief that’s a mouthful — which surveyed voters in the state of Virginia ahead of the upcoming election and it’s bad news for fans of Vice President Kamala Harris. It’s important to note that Virginia is a blue state. And now Harris and former President Donald Trump are locked in a very tight contest for the presidency in what should have been an easy victory for the Democratic Party nominee.
📊 VIRGINIA poll by University of Mary Washington
2-WAY
🟦 Harris: 48%
🟥 Trump: 46%
—
FULL FIELD
🟦 Harris: 47%
🟥 Trump: 46%
🟨 RFK Jr: 2%
🟪 Other: 2%
——
Senate
🟦 Tim Kaine (inc): 49%
🟥 Hung Cao: 43%
🟪 Other: 2%
—
Sept. 3-9 | 756 LV | ±3.7%https://t.co/1cseQv3DYe— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 20, 2024
According to UMW, out of a total of 756 likely Virginia voters surveyed, 47 percent say they’re casting a ballot for Harris, while 46 percent say they’re supporting Trump. Polling data was collected between Sept. 3-9.
In a question that asked likely voters only about the major party nominees, the results also remained well within the margin of error: 48 percent favored Harris and 46 preferred Trump. Among all survey respondents, the two major party nominees were tied at 44 percent each. Roughly five percent said they were undecided, with the remainder saying they support a third-party or independent candidate or were not planning to vote.
“This new survey suggests Virginia should be getting a much closer look from both presidential campaigns,” Stephen J. Farnsworth, professor of political science at the University of Mary Washington and director of UMW’s Center for Leadership and Media Studies went on to say in his analysis of the data. “Virginia may deserve to be treated as a ‘swing state’ once again this year.”
The survey, which concluded just before the presidential debate on Sept. 10, showed that Virginians were greatly concerned with a range of policy issues: 20 percent said the economy and jobs were the top concern, while 19 percent said inflation, 19 percent said threats to democracy, 13 percent said immigration and five percent said abortion. Republicans in the survey focused more on economic matters, while Democrats were more likely to be concerned about threats to democracy and abortion. Farnsworth noted that some Virginia surveys conducted in the weeks since Biden decided not to run for re-election have offered differing results. Some found a margin favoring Harris that was greater than the survey’s margin of error, while others identified a very close presidential contest in Virginia.
“Given the range of findings in Virginia surveys over the past two months, the Harris and Trump campaigns may be paying far too little attention to the Commonwealth,” Farnsworth commented. “Virginians have a history of bouncing back and forth between the parties.”
In the 2020 presidential election Joe Biden beat Trump in Virginia by 10 points. Just one year later, GOP member Glenn Youngkin won the gubernatorial race 51 percent to his opponent’s 49 percent. Participants in the survey said they approved of Youngkin’s performance as governor, 46 percent to 34 percent. I bet you’re wondering how President Joe Biden did in this poll. A total of 37 percent approve of his performance while 53 percent are not happy with it.
Is Harris in panic mode yet? She doesn’t have this as sowed up as the people around her are probably telling her. All things considered, it really does seem things are trending toward Trump across the country. Let’s hope that continues.
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