Vice President Kamala Harris is probably not going to like news concerning one of the country’s oldest, most reliable polls for the presidential election as it continues to lean toward her opponent, GOP presidential nominee and former president, Donald Trump. Of course, that very thought puts a big grin across my face, so I’m loving this.
The survey in question is the Cincinnati “Cookie Poll,” which has been a tradition in the state of Ohio for a long, long time during election cycles. It has also, with startling accuracy, predicted the next commander-in-chief since 1984, save for one. That is remarkable. And it’s not a survey that heavily revolves around science either, which makes its accuracy even more exceptional.
The unscientific survey revolves around the diehard customers of Busken Bakery who have until November 5th to purchase a cookie of their preferred candidate, either in person or online. After thousands of orders, Trump is leading Vice President Kamala Harris with 54% support (2,953 cookies) to Harris’ 39% (2,134 cookies), with an “independent” smiley-face cookie scoring 7% (397 cookies), according to the New York Post. Bakery president and CEO Dan Busken likened the early tally to an “early voting” period. “We like to joke and say [customers] can stuff the ballot box,” he told the Post. Customers may purchase as many cookies as they want across Busken Bakery’s four regional stores. Each cookie counts as a single vote.
Despite its lack of empirical rigor, the Cincinnati cookie poll has successfully predicted all but one of the past 10 presidential elections. The one its customers missed? President Joe Biden’s victory over Trump in 2020. Still, the swing state-turned-red state is regionally and economically diverse, both factors which Busken said contribute to the reliability of his poll. “Our results, out of our four retail stores, kind of cover the north, south, east and west portions of Cincinnati. So they’re pretty diverse,” Busken explained. “It’s definitely interesting that in a state like Ohio and in a city like Cincinnati that there’s been such accuracy in this cookie poll over the years.”
Up until the 2020 presidential election, many pollsters across the United States relied on Ohio to be the bellwether for presidential elections, all the way back to 1964. Ohio, a battleground state, has sided with the winner of every major election from that point on up to 2020 when voters there chose Trump, but Biden was the “winner.” However, despite that one time, Busken and his dad, Page, who created the cookie poll have continued to expand their survey, making predictions for both the Super Bowl and other sporting events.
“We hire a local artist [Jim White] that does caricatures, and he draws a caricature of each candidate. And then we transfer that image to a cookie,” Dan Busken said. “It’s meant to be fun.” Unfortunately, he added, the contentious nature of modern politics means some customers are experiencing more hurt feelings and cold shoulders from their neighbors than in past elections. “Some people this year — especially more than any prior elections — have been more vocal and, not so friendly about things,” Busken reflected. “But we’re moving forward. We’ve done it for 40 years. We think it’s fun.”
Regardless of how the election turns out, Busken stated cookie sales will stay on the up and up because both customers and voters have a deep desire to feel like they have a say in how things turn out.
“We sold a lot more in the first two weeks than we did the last election,” he stated in conclusion. “So I’d say cookie voter turnout has been up.”
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